Witness Borne

Sidi Bouzid: Some hope in the heart of the Arab Spring

2011-12-19T08:52:00.001-08:00

The following is an excerpt from my latest piece in Al Masry Al Youm, which can be viewed in full here: http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/556836

SIDI BOUZID, Tunisia — Many have called Sidi Bouzid the birthplace of the Arab Spring after vegetable seller Muhammad Bouazizi set himself on fire to protest his humiliation and extortion at the hands of local police. Bouazizi’s act served as the spark that ignited the country, with protesters forcing the overthrow of Tunisian dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Popular uprisings followed throughout the region.

However, one year after Bouazizi’s act, many Sidi Bouzidans insist that nothing has changed.

“We all love Bouazizi. I can’t describe this day — it’s like I entered paradise,” says Hisham Laife, a 24-year-old vegetable seller who says he and Bouazizi had been friends since childhood. Yet, as over 10,000 Tunisians hold celebrations — blocks away from the vegetable seller’s cart — honoring the one-year anniversary of when Bouazizi burned himself alive, Laife remains pessimistic.

“Not a thing has changed since the revolution,” he says.

A neighboring vegetable seller, a 60-year-old by the name of Rabah Rabihi, nods his head in agreement only a few steps behind Laife.

“There haven’t been any changes. They need to solve unemployment,” says Rabihi.

Faces of Tunisia’s ‘sit-in’ protesters

2011-12-18T06:14:00.000-08:00

December, 6th marked day six of a sit-in protest in front of Tunisia’s newly elected constituent assembly in the Tunis district of Bardo. Dozens have camped out in tents, while thousands from diverse groups with diverse political objectives have come to make their voice heard as the country’s newly elected governing body begins plenary sessions. Many of the demonstrators appear to be in agreement on at least two things: they want more checks on the power of the constituent assembly, and they want the government to tackle the high rate of unemployment.

“We want to prevent the imposition of a new dictatorship - the dictatorship of the majority,” says Wassim Meddeb, a recent university graduate and filmmaker.

Meddeb came to Tunis from the coastal town of Klibia and has been living in a tent adorned with political placards with fellow demonstrators for almost a week.

“We need a civil, liberal state, one that addresses unemployment,” says Meddeb, who has himself been looking for jobs for over a year.

The Islamist Ennahda party won roughly 40 percent of the votes in Tunisia’s historic October 23 election. They have since worked to create a coalition with the leftist parties CPR, which came in second in the elections, and Ettakatol, which came in fourth. Ennahda Secretary General Hamadi Jebali took the post of Prime Minister, CPR leader Moncef Marzouki is set to become President, and Ettakatol leader Mustafa Ben Jaafar is President of the Assembly. However, many are worried that the President’s role in decision-making may be limited, providing little check on Ennahda’s ability to govern without consensus.

“The other party leaders will become figureheads without real power,” says Sonia Dridi, an English student at Tunis’s High Institute of Human Sciences. “[The constituent assembly] has to divide power between the Prime Minister and the President.”

Other protesters held placards calling for a proper separation of powers between the executive and legislative branches of power. Many say they want all legislation in the assembly to be passed with a two-thirds rather than a simple majority. Tlijani Hassane, a youth union leader who rooms with Meddeb in his makeshift shelter, believes that government ministers should not come from the ranks of the elected constituent assembly.

“We want a parliamentary system with precautions. If they combine powers, there will be one power that will dominate the system,” he says.

Others are calling for greater accountability and transparency by asking the government to televise all the assembly’s proceedings on a separate, national television station.

“We want parliamentary TV. We want to see with our own eyes,” says Dridi. “We don’t have confidence in our journalists. They are biased, with no critical views.”

The constituent assembly is tasked primarily with writing a new constitution and laying the groundwork for the next elections. At the same time, the assembly is also tasked with the role of creating an interim governing mechanism. Prior to elections, many civil society groups in Tunisia advocated for holding a referendum, parallel to elections, that would limit the assembly’s power and duration. The referendum was never held, but a group of 11 parties agreed amongst themselves to limit the duration of the assembly to one year before holding the next elections.

However many are concerned that the apparent lack of systemic checks on the assembly will lead to a concentration of power.

“There is no democratic system in the world that does not have a separation of powers,” says Mechergui Haifa, a medical student who is working as a volunteer at the Bardo protests.

THE UNEMPLOYMENT FACTOR

Haifa, along with several other volunteers, has been visiting the tents, providing check ups and medicine to those spending cold nights outside the assembly. Most of her patients are unemployed, and she says that fears over unemployment, which according to the latest figures stands at 18 percent, run just as high as fears over concentration of power.

“The situation is miserable. We cannot work. Even doctors cannot find work,” she says.

One person at the sit-in that Haifa checks up on is Ridha Amara. Amara, a 35-year-old from the phosphate mining town of Gafsa, has been out of work for 5 years despite holding a master’s degree. He, along with dozens of other out of work miners from Gafsa, came to Tunis to join the Bardo sit-in a week ago.

“They have disputes over the next president, but we just want a job. They leave us here,” he says.

Mouldi Shanafi, an English teacher who also says he has been out of work for five years, has come to the Bardo protests three days in a row.

“They are simple people just defending their right to work, like me for example,” he says describing many at the protests.

However, he says there is second group among the protesters with a more political agenda.

“They want to break this victory of Ennahda and to win the presidential post in the next elections. They are preparing now for the next elections,” Shanafi says, pointing at what he calls the “election losers.”

But some, like Amara, are just sick of the whole system.

“We are here for a new revolution against a new dictatorship,” Amara says.

The obscure future of women in a new Tunisia

2011-12-05T06:26:00.000-08:00

Below is an excerpt from my piece in Al Masry Al Youm:

The Islamist Ennahdha party’s election victory in Tunisia has come to mean many things to many people. For many outside observers wary of how the “Arab Spring” might reshape regional politics, their victory signals a trend that will allow more conservative elements in the region to follow suit and succeed to power. For others, the victory is a positive sign that political Islam in the region has become ‘moderate’ and will adhere to a model of democracy a la Turkey.
But for women’s rights activists in Tunisia, the victory is a worrying sign that their battle for equality has suddenly become a great deal more difficult.
Days after Tunisia’s historic 23 October elections for a constituent assembly, tasked primarily with writing a new constitution, Tunisian feminists held an emergency meeting at Tunis’ feminist university to discuss strategy options.
“Our conviction now is that we have to fight for the preservation of the women’s rights that were included in the previous constitution,” says Salma Hajri, a physician and a member of the Tunisian Association of Democratic Women, or ATFD by its French acronym.
Ennahdha, which bills itself not as an Islamist party but as a party “in reference to Islam,” won roughly 40 percent of the vote and took 89 out of 217 seats in the new assembly, three times more than their closest opponents. The victory has set off alarm bells for many women’s rights activists who are concerned that instead of pushing to achieve legal parity, they will now be forced to defend the rights that Tunisian women have already won. “We have to be very watchful and very focused,” says Hajri.
Tunisian women enjoy relatively strong legal protection of their rights in comparison to neighboring countries. The Code of Personal Status, promulgated in 1957 by Tunisia’s first president, Habib Bourguiba, abolished polygamy, created stricter divorce laws aimed at protecting women, and improved women’s access to higher education. Subsequent amendments to the code have further bolstered women’s rights.
However, Tunisia is not a constitutionally secular state, and women’s rights are still subject legally to a reading of Islamic law in one particular and important case: inheritance. Tunisia’s inheritance law, based on Islamic law, or Sharia, grants the greater share of inheritance to male heirs. ATFD saw such Islamic influence over the law as a threat to women’s rights and are concerned over greater reliance on the Sharia following Ennahdha’s win. “Feminism is really completely the opposite of the philosophy and conviction of the Islamists,” Hajri says.

The full article can be viewed here: http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/538661

Syria, Iraq: Turkey’s foreign policy headaches

2011-12-01T05:00:00.000-08:00

Noticed a couple things on my recent trips to Istanbul and Ankara. The media in Turkey these days is awash with stories on Syria, predictably. Somewhat less predictable is how Turkey will respond to the turmoil across its border.

Some Syrian anti-regime demonstrations have morphed into an armed resistance, with the Telegraph reporting this week that Libya’s new leaders intended to send hundreds of fighters and weapons to anti-regime forces in Syria. Some in Libya believe that the alleged proposal was a rogue one made by the Islamist, Libyan militia commander Abdul Hakim Bel Haj. While it is unclear how many Syrian anti-regime demonstrators have turned to armed resistance and exactly which outside parties are helping which side and to what extent, developments indicate that violence and repression are set to escalate in Syria.

The consequences of such an escalation would directly affect Turkey. Syrian refugees in Turkey who are staying in camps on the border number over 7000 currently. However, if the death toll keeps rising and certain key groups in Syria turn against the regime, the ensuing hostilities may force tens, possibly hundreds of thousands more streaming across the border. Leaders of the Free Syrian Army opposition group, made up mainly of former Syrian Armed Forces members who defected, are currently based near the Syrian border in southern Turkey. The Turkish government has failed to clarify what support, if any, they are providing to this group; however, it can be argued that Turkey, de facto, is harboring a group bent on violent regime change in a neighboring country. So much for Turkey’s “zero problems with neighbors” policy.

While the Turkish government has made it clear in recent weeks that they would like to see Assad step down, and that his regime has lost legitimacy, it is unclear how Turkish foreign policy makers will proceed. Turkish officials are quick to insist that the term “regime change” is not in their diplomatic vocabulary. However, it seems as if global consensus is pushing towards building pressure on the Assad regime. On Saturday, the Arab League agreed to impose sanctions on Syria, after Assad declined to respond to an Arab League proposal (Assad had been given a deadline to respond by 11 am GMT Friday) that would have set a course for a diplomatic solution. On Wednesday, Turkey followed suit and imposed its own sanctions. Both Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu and Prime Minister Recep Tayyıp Erdoğan have suggested that a militarily secure buffer zone might be set up on the Syrian border if things get out of hand. It is so far unclear which side of the border this buffer zone would need to be set up on in order to achieve its intended purpose, but many have speculated that such a move could provoke the Syrian regime and its Iranian backers. Any sort of intervention or peace-keeping mission, even a NATO-backed one, would place much of the burden on Turkey. With the country's large military and shared border, Turkey would be expected to take the lead in any NATO mission, something which would put Turkey in the uncomfortable position both domestically and across the Arab world of appearing to do the bidding of the West in a confrontation in the Middle East.

Along with sanctions, Davutoğlu also announced that Syrian trade routes would be detoured through Iraq. Turkey will host U.S. Vice President Joe Biden first in Ankara and then in Istanbul. The visit is important as Biden handles the White House’s Iraq portfolio, and American troops are set to withdraw from Iraq by the end of this year. While Washington has said that the troop withdrawal will not mean a complete U.S. disengagement from Iraq, Turkey is anxiously looking to the December withdrawal date. Any power vacuum in Iraq could lead to greater Iranian influence in the country, particularly in the south and amongst the Shia population. A power vacuum could also allow the PKK, the separatist Kurdish terrorist group based in northern Iraq, to have greater freedom of mobility and operations, a direct threat to Turkey.

Tunisian Election Predictions

2011-10-23T10:37:00.000-07:00

Tunisian polling stations are just closing now, at 7pm local time, but voting will continue until all those in voting bureaus at the time of closing have voted. The Independent High Electoral Commission, or ISIE by its French Acronym, has announced that final results will likely not be available until Tuesday evening. As we wait for results to come in, I would like to venture a couple predictions, assuming voting and counting take place fairly.

1- Islamist-oriented Ennahdha is likely to win over 40%

Ennahdha is the best organized party in Tunisia, and by far the most popular. There are several reasons for this. As one Ennahdha member told me earlier this week, before Ennahdha was a political party, before it was even a movement, it was an organization - mainly of religiously oriented, underground political activists - which has its roots in the early 1980's. It has invaluable grassroots experience, which it has used to organize rallies (and according to unverified rumors - weddings, religious ceremonies, and community giveaways) and motivate their broad-based constituency. While the latest polls, which came out prior to the campaign season, put Ennahdha support at about 20-30%, undecided voters, which made up over 50%, are likely to swing in favor of Ennahdha.

Dozens of taxi drivers have told me, "the others are all thieves" in their eyes - Of course this must be taken with a grain of salt, but perception is important and the anecdote seems to hold water. Prior to the campaign season, the two parties at the top of the polls, Ennadha and the Progressive Democratic Party (PDP), were also the two with the biggest name recognition. While both Ennahdha leaders and PDP leaders spent time in jail under Ben Ali's regime, more Ennahdha leaders spent considerably more time in prison than PDP leaders. On top of that, PDP was a legal party under Ben Ali, trying desperately to be the voice of opposition in a political entity that tightly controlled opposition. These differences have worked to convince many Tunisians that Ennahdha was truly the voice of opposition against the old regime.

2- PDM is likely to come in second

PDM, or Al-Qotb, or the Pole Democratique Moderniste, is a coalition grouping of 4 leftist parties and 5 citizen initiatives. The best known of the parties, Ettajdid, is an old party that branched out from the communists and was legal under the former regime. The grouping has worked hard to be the voice of the Tunisian left without distancing itself from Islam. They have managed to organize impressive rallies that draw enthusiastic crowds, made up primarily of young Tunisians. They have also included numerous young candidates in their candidature lists. By grouping together, the movement has managed to tailor its message, with one party targeting artists, another evolved communists, and yet another internet activists who want an internet free from corporate interests and censorship. Meanwhile, Tunisia's best known communist party, POCT, has lost considerable support from leftists after hints from its leader, Hamma Hammami, that it will work together in coalition with Ennahdha. As for more centrist parties, like PDP and CPR, it seems as if Tunisians are likely to stay away from the "safe choice/center" parties the first time they cast their ballots.

Tunisia's Identity politics

2011-10-23T10:33:00.000-07:00

Here is a brief excerpt from my piece in Al-Masry Al-Youm this week:

Rachid Ghannouchi, the leader of the Islamic-oriented Ennahda (Renaissance) Party, drew attention this week when he suggested in several interviews that his party would win a majority in the upcoming parliament. However, at a press conference in Tunis on Wednesday, Ghannouchi warned that "there is a risk of the election results being manipulated.”

“If there is manipulation, we will rejoin the forces and the guardians of the revolution which ousted Ben Ali and the first [interim] government. We are ready to oust up to ten governments if needed,” he was quoted as saying.

The comment has drawn concern from other Tunisian political parties, including the the Progressive Democratic Party (PDP).

“We are not going to work with them, especially after this last declaration,” says Ahmed Bouazzi, a member of the PDP’s executive committee. However, PDP insists that it will respect the results of the election, regardless of the results. “We believe these elections will be fair. We will accept them because we are democrats. If Ennahda wins the majority, we will accept the result.”

Ennahda insists on shucking the “Islamist” label, instead saying that it is a party with an Arab-Islamic “reference.”

“For us, the respect of Islam, of our history, our civilization, that’s the base of our party,” says Nourreddine Arbaoui, a member of Ennahda's political bureau.

The entire piece is available at http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/507192

Tunisia's bumpy path to democracy

2011-10-17T19:00:00.001-07:00

Here is a brief excerpt of my latest piece in Foreign Policy:

TUNIS, Tunisia — On the eighth floor of a whitewashed building in downtown Tunis, Kamel Jendoubi sits bleary-eyed at a desk drowning in papers, his day full of meetings and far from over despite the darkening sky outside his window.

Jendoubi is president of Tunisia's Independent High Election Committee (ISIE by its French initials), tasked with supervising the country's first elections since the fall of President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali. Scheduled for Oct. 23, they will also be the first popular elections in any country whose ruler was ousted by the Arab Spring. Unlike Libya, Tunisia has experienced relatively little violence, and unlike Egypt, the old regime has relatively little power to perpetuate itself.

But Jendoubi's task isn't easy. He's beset with a growing roster of concerns, ranging from reports of election corruption to limited resources and experience. "For me, we don't have enough election officials. … We are hearing rumors of parties and candidates giving money to voters," he says.

The full article is available here.

‘Arab Bloggers’ convene following some regional success

2011-10-07T01:56:00.000-07:00

Bloggers, social media activists, and digital journalists convened in Tunis this week to discuss their role, responsibility, and challenges following the surprise, although incomplete, success of what many have termed the ‘Arab Spring.’

The ‘Third Arab Bloggers Meeting,’ the first to be held in almost two years, brought together voices from across the region, each telling their stories about how they have witnessed, recounted and participated in assertions of civic identities in what had previously been a region devoid of a strong civil society.

A Syrian woman, Razan Ghazzawi, who in recent months has begun to write on the political situation, braved speaking about her country’s domestic turmoil.

“Some people were against the protests. So many denied the protests,” She said.

It was difficult for many in Syria to believe that there were people demonstrating against the government, as, she says, protests taking place were often “flash protests,” dissolving after 2, 3 or 10 minutes. However, the fact that images of the protests were posted on the internet and social media websites refuted official narratives that there was no civic strife.

“The image brought down the lie,” said Ghazzawi.

Meanwhile Libyan blogger and essayist Ghazi Gheblawi, working from London to publicize the Libyan revolution, said that social media networks played an important role in pushing the cause of the revolution.

“The internet played a major role when Benghazi was totally isolated,” said Gheblawi. “Many people were smuggling videos [from Libya] – first to Tunisia, then uploaded to Youtube and Twitter. Youtube and Twitter magnified the events.”

A Blogger Nobel Peace Prize nominee?

Tunisian blogger Lina Ben Mhenni, who, according to rumors was in the running for the Nobel Peace Prize, was also in attendance at the blogger meetings. She expressed to this journalist how happy she was to have been nominated, but is disturbed and confused by increasing attacks on her by the Tunisian media.

She warns that Tunisian bloggers still face challenges following an uprising that resulted in the ouster of longtime dictator Zine al Abidine Ben Ali earlier this year.

“Yes we are free, but you know, some two weeks ago a blogger was beaten by the police. Sometimes they just arrest bloggers because they are taking photos,” said Ben Mhenni. “[There is] no more censorship, but aggression is continuing.”

An Unexpected Visitor

Despite the concerns of some Tunisians that the January ‘revolution’ did not secure freedom of speech for all Tunisians, dramatic changes have taken place. The Tunisian government body charged with overseeing and censoring internet in Tunisia, made an appearance at Monday’s opening session, not to shut down the meeting, but to lend support to the conference. Moez Chackchouk, CEO of the Tunisian Internet Agency, or ATI, said that his agency, following the ‘revolution,’ was no longer the enemy of internet activists or free speech.

“We were the enemy of internet activists, but, after the revolution, we were able to open our doors to you,” Chakchouk told the stunned audience at Cite Des Sciences conference hall in Tunis.

While Chakchouk says that “the Ben Ali regime subsidized the development of a sophisticated censorship system” for the internet, he insists that now, “there is no taboo subject anymore for the new ATI.”

Several bloggers stood up after Chakchouk’s presentation, expressing their happy surprise at the fact that a government official was joining them at the conference.

“Eight or nine months ago, I would not have believed a government official would be talking like this,” said one blogger who addressed the audience.

"Managing" the Arab Spring's economic woes

2011-09-28T07:15:00.000-07:00

At the heart of the so-called ‘Arab Spring,’ post-revolution Tunisia is still beset by the problem of a young, unemployed, and educated population. This is particularly pronounced in the less developed interior of the country in towns like Sidi Bouzid, where a young vegetable seller by the name of Muhammad Bou Azzizi first ignited the Arab spring by an act of self immolation.

“The biggest challenge now is to manage expectations, the expectation of the young population, those among them who are unemployed,” said interim Tunisian Finance Minister Jalloul Ayed, before heading to Washington for the annual IMF/World Bank meetings.

Many Tunisians see unemployment as the biggest challenge to the revolution. Countrywide, unemployment rose from 14 percent in 2010, to 19 percent by the end of July, when new graduates and Tunisians fleeing the violence in neighboring Libya flooded the job market. In the interior of the country, unemployment runs upwards of 18 percent, with the number rising to between 31 and 48 percent among graduates, according to government figures.

“Prosperity consolidates democracy,” says Ayed. “Tangible prosperity: better living conditions, jobs for the unemployed, better prospects for the country, so that particularly the young population starts to see the light at the end of the tunnel and that they feel comfortable and confident about their future.”

However, those who remain unemployed have not been waiting patiently for October 23, when elections will be held for a constituent assembly that will write Tunisia’s new constitution. Last week, five unemployed teachers attempted a coordinated suicide in the southern town of Kasserine, hanging themselves from nooses tied to a goal post before onlookers quickly took them down and transported them to a hospital. The National Council for Liberty in Tunisia, a non-governmental organization that works closely with activists in Kasserine, say that the five made their suicide attempt after going on a hunger strike for 5 days, calling on the interim education minister and the prime minister to change the law that prevents people over the age of 40 from entering the public sector. Their calls were ignored.

Meanwhile, this month saw the repeated imposition and lifting of curfews in the southern towns of Sbeitla, and Sidi Bouzid as well as Kasserine after demonstrations and sometimes violent clashes between demonstrators and security forces. Here again, unemployment was the main catalyst of unrest.

Before leaving for Washington, Ayed announced the five year “Jasmine Economic and Social Plan,” which outlines a medium and long term solution to Tunisia’s economic woes by creating one million jobs while seeking to address the “short term economic and social emergency issues” to satisfy the growing impatience among Tunisia’s population. Financing for the plan is dependent to a great extent on the $38 billion international donor aid promised by the G8 under the May 27 Deauville partnership to help Arab countries in their transition to free and democratic societies. None of that money has yet been received.

The international aid, which was initially promised to Egypt and Tunisia, must now be expanded to cover Jordan, Morocco and possibly Libya following a decision at a G8 summit in Marseille earlier this month. Ayed says that he is confident that they “really mean to provide that support,” even though the G8 countries “haven’t touched the bilateral” figures, which he says are determined by their political relationship with Tunisia. He says he wouldn’t be surprised if specifics of the plan are discussed at the Washington meetings.

However, many young Tunisians remain wary of the country’s future economic prospects. At a rally early this month in front of interim Prime Minister Beji Caid Essebsi’s office in downtown Tunis, several young university students left their classrooms to join policemen protesting the decision to ban police unions from holding strikes. A university student named Iskander said he was worried that the elections would not change anything. Iskander pointed to his pocket where the top of a green Tunisian passport was visible.

“I already have my visa for Italy ready,” he said.

Tunisian Women in politics

2011-09-21T07:36:00.000-07:00

This photo shows women from Tunisian party AFAQ registering their candidacy at the high election committee's office in the town of Monastir

Tunisia is preparing for its first elections since a revolution ousted longtime dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. With only a few weeks to go before polls open, dozens of newly formed parties are taking their first steps towards democracy. As campaign season gears up, Tunisian women are making their presence felt. Recently I followed four Tunisian women who submitted their candidacies in the seaside city of Monastir. This is their story:

Neyla Charchour is no stranger to Tunisian politics. In 2002, she set up the Liberal Mediterranean Party, promoting her views using a blog and the party’s website. When her party attracted the attention of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, she was interrogated by the police, her internet was cut off, and her husband was jailed for ten months on trumped up charges, she says.

Today, in a post-revolutionary Tunisia, Charchour is back in politics. She says that while Civil Society organizations play an important role, she felt it was necessary to reenter politics in order to make her voice heard

“Bringing your ideas into laws, make them come true, not only keep them as an idea. When you want parity between men and women, it needs laws, and if you wants laws to be adopted, you need to go through a party,” Charchour says.

On a Wednesday morning in early September, the last day for those running in the election to submit their candidacies, Charchour sets out from the capital Tunis with fellow members of her economically liberal Afaq, or Horizon party, to their hometown of Monastir. One of those fellow party members is Meriem Bourguiba.

Bourguiba is the granddaughter of Habib Bourguiba, who became Tunisia’s first President after being one of the leaders to win Tunisia’s independence from the French. He cultivated ties with the West, upheld secular principles, and put in place Tunisia’s Code of Personal Status, a law which came into effect in 1957 and which aimed to institute equality between men and women. In the words chosen by himself for his mausoleum, Bourguiba liberated the women of Tunisia.

Bourguiba says that her grandfather’s vision for Tunisia, one defined by pragmatic approaches to solving Tunisia’s problems, is just what the country needs as the country finds its footing following the revolution.

“Pragmatism: This is the ideology that works for Tunisia, pragmatism. What you need is the hot issues have to be dealt with, beyond any ideology,” she says. “And we see it today, the people cannot wait. They want a job and they want to eat, and without those two, even democracy cannot prevail,” says Bourguiba.

However, with over 105 political parties registered following the ouster of Ben Ali, there are a multitude of diverse ideologies competing for a voice, with everything from communists to capitalists and everything in between.

One party making its presence felt on the Tunisian political scene is the Islamist party Ennahda. An August poll conducted by the state news agency TAP shows Ennahda way ahead, with 23% support, followed by the Progressive Democratic party, with 9% support. The winners of the October 23rd elections will participate in a constituent assembly with a mandate to write a new constitution for Tunisia, a system designed by the interim government in a decision referred to as Kasbah 2.

These numbers trouble Henda Fennira Ben Fadhel, another Afaq woman registering her candidacy for the first time. She fears that if they win, Islamists will work towards reversing the Code of Personal Status.

“I have three girls, and after Kasbah 2, I had the feeling that the organization of the Islamists and the decision to go for a constitution in which these guys will have a hand in and a say in, made me feel like my girls are in danger,” Ben Fadhel says.

Many in Tunisia worry that the elections are not going to be the free and open elections that they hope for. Some accuse ex-regime figures of trying to foment instability; others say foreign money is being funneled in to influence the elections. However, the women say they must stay optimistic.

“If it doesn’t happen on the 24th of October, what we can say is ‘we tried.’ We’ll have tried. We didn’t stay on the fence. And in ten, fifteen years time, our children, her daughters will ask us the question and we’ll say ‘we tried,’ says Bourguiba.

In a sunlit conference room in Monastir with high walls, two secretaries accept documents from Charchour as the candidates make last minute calls to find out the exact names of relatives to fill out elections forms. After handing in the forms and getting their candidacy documents stamped, there is a round of handshakes among the women, with congratulations going first from the older ladies in the group to the youngest, Amira Laajimi, 25, for her first foray into politics. The event is quickly followed by a family photo full of grins. As the process winds down, Charchour looks across the table to Ben Fadhel and says in English “We did it.”

EU Progress Report Reflects on Country Rather Than Government, says Minister

2010-11-11T09:51:00.000-08:00

Turkish Minister for EU affairs and chief negotiator Egemen Bağış, at a press conference held for Istanbul's foreign press Tuesday night, reiterated his positive reading of the EU's annual progress report on Turkey and deflected both the criticisms found within the report and those registered by the audience of journalists who attended the press meeting.

"When I read the report, and analyze it, and compare it with the previous 12 reports, the way I interpret it, we don't have to wait for another 13 years or 13 reports for full membership. Membership is now a much more achievable goal for Turkey than it ever was," said Bagış.

The report, which covers the period from early October 2009-October 2010, notes that "progress is measured on the basis of decisions taken, legislation adopted, and measures implemented."

"Of course this is Turkey's progress report. It's not the government's progress report, it's not the media's progress report, it's not the opposition's progress report, it's not the NGO's progress report, but this is an overall progress report for everyone in Turkey, so everyone should assume their responsibility vis a vis the report," said Bağış. "We all have to do our share to make sure Turkey's picture is depicted in a positive and balanced way."

Apart from an in depth assessment of Turkey's progress on each of the 33 chapters of EU accession, the report looks at Turkey's implementation of the Copenhagen criteria with regards to democracy, rule of law, human rights, and the protection of minorities.

This year's report identifies the dominant changes in Turkey's domestic political agenda this past year as having been the constitutional reform package, the government's democratic opening to address the Kurdish issue, and the "widening investigations into alleged coup plans." The report characterizes how Turkey addressed these issues as one in which "a confrontational political climate prevailed, marked by the lack of dialogue and spirit of compromise between the main political parties and the government and strained relations between key political institutions."

Bagış responded to this, agreeing that there has not been enough cooperation between parties and blaming opposition parties for not engaging the governing AKP in tackling the challenges that Turkey faces.

The report also offered some strong criticism on the state of freedom of the press in Turkey, citing the "high number of cases initiated against journalists who have reported on the Ergenekon case" and the prosecutions they face. This, the report warns, "could result in self-censorship." The report went on to criticize undue "pressure on newspapers" and "political attacks against the press." Citing the court case on the tax fine ordered in 2009 against the Doğan Media Group, the report notes that the "press exercises self-restraint when reporting following the initiation of this case."

"Lots of the criticism regarding the media is about judicial procedures...On one side, you want the judicial branch to be independent of the executive branch, and on the other side, blaming the executive branch for not interfering with the processes of the judicial branch is a contradiction," said Bağış. "I want to underline here that we respect the media's role to be a mirror showing us the insufficiencies or problems. We even welcome their criticism. But we do not welcome being insulted or being cursed at."

Several journalists at Tuesday's event questioned Bağış on the state of freedom of the press in Turkey. One journalist asked Bagış what the government was planning to do about Kurdish journalists in jail and other journalists who are in jail due to alleged connections with the Ergenekon investigations.

"Things may not be as good as they should be, but things today are much better than they used to be, and things will be better in the near future than they are today," said Bağış, noting that Turkey has changed since "the bad old days." Regarding “politicians and journalists who have been imprisoned for their ideals and articles, not because of direct allegations with attempts to have coups or topple democratically elected governments through undemocratic means, but just by the mere fact that they have written an article or they have recited a poem, things are better today,” said Bağış.

Of the court cases currently facing journalists, Bagış said that “only 11 of them have to do with political issues. The rest are either terrorism related, or attempts to topple a democratically elected government.”

Bagış went on to highlight the some of the positive developments that have taken place in the last decade. He believes that the rights of ethnic and religious minorities have improved, noting that ten years ago, Kurds used to fear admitting that they were Kurds. He also noted that Turkey has allowed some services at historical Greek and Armenian churches that would have been met with hostility in the past. While there was criticism in the report regarding these issues, he pointed out that at least some progress was made this year on each of the 33 EU accession chapters and he remains positive that Turkey will eventually become a member of the European Union.

“Europe needs Turkey more than Turkey needs Europe,” said Bagış. “The cost of keeping Turkey out is higher than having Turkey in.”

Bomb Explodes In Downtown Istanbul

2010-10-31T02:13:00.000-07:00

A bomb exploded this morning in Istanbul's Taksim square at about 10:30 this morning, according to Turkish media reports. Current reports place the injured at 22, of which 10 are police and 12 are civilians. The attack appears to have targeted a police outpost.

Istanbul's security director, Hüseyin Çapkin, was quoted as saying that the attack was likely carried out by a male, suicide bomber. He also said that another unexploded bomb was found beside the attacker's body.

Turkey: The View From Israel

2010-10-25T23:11:00.000-07:00

Three leading Israeli commentators frankly criticized Turkey’s current foreign policy in Istanbul on Friday. The speakers said that Turkey is now like Iran, and seen in Israel as part of an axis hostile to Israel, the United States, and Europe. The Turkish hosts of the conference, Boğaziçi University’s TÜSİAD Foreign Policy Forum, debated some of the assertions made by their Israeli guests, leading to a lively discussion about which country’s government, people, or policy is to blame for the current malaise in Turkish-Israeli relations. However, as the hosts themselves said, the purpose of the debate was to have “frank words among ourselves,” and all participants agreed that they were “very interested in finding a solution.”

The Israeli participants at Friday’s events were Amikam Nachmani, professor of political studies at Bar-Ilan University, Shlomo Avineri, professor of political science and former Director-General of the Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Aluf Benn, editor-at large a Haaretz Newspaper.

“This is the first time since the early 1990’s in the strategic Turkish-Israeli relations, that a clear non-threatening Turkish act is deliberately, openly launched against Israel with the Turkish intent of embarrassing Israel,” said Nachmani, speaking about the Gaza flotilla crisis that occurred on May 31 of this year when a Turkish ship, the Mavi Marmara, attempted to break the Israeli naval blockade of Gaza and distribute humanitarian aid. Eight Turks and one Turkish-American were killed by Israeli soldiers, who boarded the ship before it could reach Gaza.

“Ask Turks how they would feel if other countries arranged an aid convoy akin to the Gaza flotilla for their own Turkish minority. Or how about supporting the Armenian demand for genocide recognition, or inviting heads of the PKK for a visit, the same way that Prime Minister Erdoğan hosted Khaled Meshaal, the leader of Hamas. You will be met with silent stares” said Nachmani, quoting some of the hostile rhetoric coming from the Israeli media against Turkey.

“You wanted to know what is the public opinion in Israel, and I gave you the gist of it. And I’ll continue,” said Nachmani, categorically describing a narrative of Turkey’s foreign policy in stark contrast to what many of the Turkish intellectuals countered in their rebuttals.

Professor Avineri added another layer of criticism to Turkey’s foreign policy. In his presentation, Avineri said that Turkey’s recent foreign policy has been seen as hostile not only to Israel, but to America as well.

“No NATO country has ever voted against the United States in the Security Council. Turkey did it,” aid Avineri, referring to Turkey’s “no” vote at the United Nations’ Security Council in June to a draft resolution imposing more sanctions on Iran. “This was saying ‘no’ to Obama, not Bush, and Obama represents a different kind of foreign policy.”

Many Turkish officials have defended their vote at the Security Council, noting that the nuclear swap deal they had signed with Iran shortly before the vote was a more effective diplomatic step towards preventing a nuclear-weaponized Iran, a goal Turkey shares with the West.

However, Avineri believes that the vote also created a negative perception of Turkey in Europe, and not only in the United States and Israel.

“Turkey being friendly to Iran hurt it in the eyes of Europe,” said Avineri.

Aluf Benn spoke of the stereotypes that have developed within Israel of Turkey since the flotilla incident.

“The initial reaction of friends and family members when they heard that I was going to Istanbul was ‘Isn’t it dangerous? It’s a really dangerous time, are you sure about that?’” said Benn. “No Israeli had any trouble in Turkey, neither in Istanbul nor anywhere else, not before the flotilla not after the flotilla… there was no story about anyone who was even over-questioned at the airport. Nothing. But still, ‘Are you crazy? What are you going to do there?’ And this is by people who consider themselves in their own eyes to be the elites of Israel, people with degrees, people who believe that they are better informed about the world than just watching TV news or reading the press, but still that was the impression.”

Benn went on to speak of the historically close relationship between Turkey and Israel, describing Turkey as one of the first countries to have an open military relationship with Israel. He said that France had, in the 1950’s, helped Israel militarily to an extent that no other nation had or would, including helping with the development of Israel’s nuclear weapons program. While France has since become a critic of Israel, Benn noted that France would never be considered an enemy. Although saddened by the recent fallout between Israel and Turkey, Benn hopes that Turkey can at some point criticize Israel in a similar way while maintaining a working relationship. Part of the blame, he said, lies in the fact that Israelis have an image of Turkey as “exotic,” in times of both friendship and disagreement.

The panel chair at Friday’s event, Gün Kut, a professor of political science at Boğaziçi University, responded to his Israeli guest’s criticism of Turkey. He said that the recent tensions between the two countries occurred when “for the first time, Turkey and Israel, at the official level, stopped talking to one another as two European Western states and started to talk to one another as two Middle Eastern states.”

Kut described Turkey as the first country in the region to have pro-Palestinian sentiments without being anti-Israeli. He also refuted the assertion that Turkey was part of Iran’s “axis,” saying that it is in Turkey’s interest to have peace and stability in the region, while it is in Iran’s interest to maintain instability in the region. He was critical of the current foreign policy espoused by Turkish foreign minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, of “zero problems with neighbors,” saying that this only works if you are the source of all problems in the region. Instead, countries have to manage and mitigate problems.

Kut criticized the current populist foreign policy trend of the current government, which some commentators explain as an attempt by the Turkish government to appeal to the “Arab street.”

“You conduct foreign policy from government to government, not from government to street,” said Kut, noting that praise for Turkey’s policy from the Arab media was flattering, but hardly the basis for shaping foreign policy.

One possible reason for the current drift in relations between Turkey and Israel is the proliferation of democracy in Turkey, according to some of the speakers at the conference.

“It is clear, at least to some Israelis, the more democratic Turkey becomes, the more you see the rise of Muslim forces, and the less the military can influence the country’s policies. Similarly, as the country became more and more democratic, hence more open about its cooperation with Israel, internal opposition to it has risen,” said Nachmani.

Public opinion’s effect on foreign policy can be seen to some extent in the flotilla crisis. According to a poll by Turkish polling group Metropoll after the crisis, over 60% of Turks felt that Turkey’s reaction to Israel after the crisis was not strong enough, as opposed to 33% who felt that Turkey’s response was strong enough.

“If you have Muslim solidarity between Turkey and Hamas, I’m not saying that’s good or bad, but there is more criticism of Israel,” as a result, Nachmani said.

As for solving the problem, Friday’s event was billed as an attempt by respected intellectuals of Turkey and Israel to discuss ways forward.

“What should be our role? First and foremost, at least to describe to our readers the other face of Turkey, not only the inflammatory speeches of the Prime Minister, or the demonstrations after the flotilla…or the exotic stereotypes of the past. But also, to expose them to another face of Turkey, that we know very little about. I was very excited by the invitation because I knew that this was a great opportunity to interact with that kind of Turkey,” said Benn. “Here I see the big way forward to develop the relationship, even at times of strong political differences and arguments,” he said in closing, which drew applause from those gathered.

(A portion of this piece appeared in the Hurriyet Daily News)

Global investors eyeing Turkey's fiscal discipline, report says

2010-10-22T10:17:00.000-07:00

Turkey is recovering from the global financial crisis strongly, with its economy ranked as one of the most stable performers in the region, according to a recent report from real-estate brokerage Cushman & Wakefield.

“Recent growth has been even faster than expected, aided by strong employment growth, and low interest rates,” the report said, adding that Turkey has experienced one of the “quickest stabilizations” and “strongest recoveries” in Europe, citing rising employment and strong growth across numerous sectors.

Yet while David Hutchings, head of Cushman & Wakefield’s European Research Group, said there has been strong corporate investment in Turkey over the last year, he warned of an overall “double dip in sectors that rely on demand.”

Hutchings said declining demand from Germany and France for Turkish imports may yet have a negative impact on the Turkish economy.

The research group head told the Hürriyet Daily News & Economic Review that investors will be watching Turkey to see if “the government maintains fiscal and monetary discipline,” and whether it will fall into the trap of spending large amounts of money in the run-up to the June 2011 general elections.

The Cushman & Wakefield report said that in the real estate market, rental growth was down 7.7 percent in the industrial sector, but up 4.7 percent in the retail sector and 2.5 percent in the office sector. This, according to Alan Robertson, managing director of global real-estate services firm Jones Lang LaSalle, is directly correlated to Turkey’s economic outlook.

“When the economy is not good for the industrial sector, industrial rents go down,” said Robertson. “There is a direct correlation.”

Office market rents fell by roughly 25 percent following the peak of the global financial crisis in early 2008. However, since the third quarter of 2009, they have stopped falling. Office real-estate has been recovering nicely, but Robertson believes “the industrial sector is a little behind the office sector, and will recover next year.”

“When you have gross domestic product growth like Turkey’s, you have to expect a correlation in the real-estate market,” he said.

Facing austerity measures

According to the Cushman & Wakefield report, this year Europe experienced its strongest second-quarter growth in a decade. The report noted that the recovery is being driven primarily by exports from core countries, particularly Germany.

However, because of falling global demand for exports and the application of expected austerity measures, the second quarter may represent the “high point for this phase of the cycle,” the report said.

It also said there was a great economic “disparity, country by country” which is expected to persist. The economic troubles hitting Greece and, to a lesser extent, Portugal, Ireland and Spain, are in stark contrast to the recovery of other countries such as Germany.

Employment is back on the upswing in the finance and business sectors, up 1.8 percent overall since the third quarter of last year. Meanwhile, employment in manufacturing continues to fall, although the rate has recently slowed. Such a trend is partially reflected in the real estate market, with positive growth being experienced in office real estate, compared to negative growth in industrial and retail markets.

While exports are leading the recovery, job creation in the industry has slowed. Hutchings told the Daily News that while there was no increase in hiring in the industrial and manufacturing sectors, many industries are capitalizing on spare capacity to fuel growth.

(Report Originally appeared in Hurriyet Daily News)

Energy Forum to Seek Regional Dialogue on Sensitive Issues

2010-08-29T14:41:00.000-07:00

The second annual Black Sea Energy and Economic Forum, organized by the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Energy Center, is to take place in Istanbul on September 29th. Ambassador Ross Wilson, who recently joined the Atlantic Council as Director of the Dinu Patriciu Eurasia Center, is one of many experts who follow the region closely and will be attending the conference. Wilson, who has served as U.S Ambassador in both Azerbaijan and Turkey, spoke to the Hurriyet Daily News about the purpose of the conference and some of the issues that are to be discussed.

After its inaugural convention in Bucharest last year, the Black Sea Energy and Economic Forum, or BSEEF, hopes to build a dialogue within the Eurasian region between economic players and policy makers. According to Ambassador Ross Wilson, the Atlantic Council is organizing the forum in Istanbul this year in order to highlight the economic and cultural commonalities between states in the region and stimulate discussions about common problems. The Atlantic Council is a Washington based think-tank that “promotes constructive U.S. leadership and engagement in international affairs” according to its website.

“We want, at the forum, to stimulate a conversation among political, business and other leaders of the region about the region’s problems,” Wilson told the Hurriyet Daily News in an interview last week. “In other words, it’s not so much Washington, the Washington think-tank world talking about the problems, it’s the region’s own leaders talking about their problems. We want to facilitate that, that is why we’re doing it there.”

Energy Issues: Seeking Alternative Supplies Cooperatively

One of the main issues in the region that affects trade, economic development and politics is that of energy. Some in the region either have energy resources that they export, like Russia, or are transit countries, like Turkey. However, other countries, particularly in Eastern Europe, are heavily dependent on energy imports. Debate in recent years has focused primarily on Europe’s overdependence on Russian energy supplies, with some accusing Russia of translating its energy exports into “soft power.”

“I think that the countries of Central and Western Europe and Eastern Europe should be concerned, as any country anywhere, about being overly dependent on one source of supply for a critical component of their national economy,” said Wilson.

However, Wilson believes that the problem is not just about Russia, but about nations being able to “stand on their own feet,” and maintain economic and political independence. For countries looking to diversify their energy supplies, Wilson believes that there are several alternatives to Russian energy. Wilson himself was ambassador to Azerbaijan when construction began on the Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan, or BTC, pipeline. BTC is a crude oil pipeline that transports oil supplies from Azeri oil fields in the Caspian Sea through Georgia to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan.

“For me it’s not so much a Russia-specific issue, it’s just being dependent on one source of supply for a critical component [of their national economy] is not a sound strategy,” said Wilson. “I think in part for that reason I supported [and] the US Government has strongly supported the development of Caspian Basin energy resources as an additional supply to what will always be large-scale purchases from Russia. Augment those with supplies that come from Kazakhstan, from Azerbaijan, maybe from Iraq at some point in the future and, if their politics change, maybe from Iran at some point as well.”

Energy issues also have a large impact on politics and foreign relations in the region. Attempts to promote new energy supply routes must take into account Russian concerns and Wilson sees ways around any potential conflicts.

“As you look now at the future of gas pipeline developments, you sort of have the same thing being played out, whether and how Russia is going to be accomodated, whether and how Russian resources might actually help to make gas pipelines more viable, financable, and exactly what the routes of large-scale, new gas pipelines might be,” said Wilson. Speaking in reference to the countries that he believes can be major energy suppliers to the Eurasian region, specifically Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, Wilson believes that “these are integral issues for these countries’ foreign policies.”

Turkey’s “Central Role”

The choice of Turkey for this year’s forum “reflects the central role, the central position of Turkey... as a major player throughout the Eurasian region,” according to Wilson. He sees Turkey, along with Russia and increasingly China, as one of the big economic players in Eurasia with its vast investments and trade in the region.

“Broadly speaking, I think the decision reflected an appreciation of this absolutely crucial role that Turkey plays,” said Wilson.

Wilson dismisses concerns that Turkey’s developing economic ties with Russia and Iran, particularly in the energy sector, could negatively impact Turkey’s integration with Europe or its relations with the United States. On the contrary, he believes Turkey’s role as an energy transit country can be of great benefit to Europe.

“Turkey’s central role in energy issues, as one of the main transit routes, if not the main transit route for Caspian Basin, Central Asian oil and natural gas to access international markets puts it in a uniquely suitable position to demonstrate its importance to Europe, to European economic development,” said Wilson. “Turkey’s got a central role to play as Europeans, European consumers seek to diversify their source of supply away from over reliance on one set of suppliers. Turkey has a unique international role to play because of that energy issue and I dont think that Turkish relations with Russia or with Iran, either of those relationships, negatively impair this role.”

Ambassador Wilson believes that Turkey’s economic ties with Iran will not negatively impact its relationship with the U.S so long as Turkey stands by the committments made by Turkish officals that it will cooperate with U.N security council sanctions on Iran. Gas purchase agreements between Turkey and Iran, signed in 1996, currently provide roughly 13-14% of Turkey’s imported natural gas annually according to Wilson. However, gas trade between the countries does not constitute an investment in Iran, a development which would put Turkey in danger of violating sanctions.

“My personal perspective is that Turkey’s relationship with Iran is more correct rather than a particularly warm relationship. Trade has been dominated by these gas purchases which have been highly unreliable for Turkey and there has been some growth in other areas as Turkish firms have found opportunities. I am sure that it will continue to be the expectation of the US administration as well as governments pretty much around the rest of the world that Turkey will, as it has said it will, meet its committments pursuant to the U.N. Security Council resolutions that have been passed and that is a pretty good standard,” said Wilson.

(A version of this piece appeared first in the Hurriyet Daily News)

“Cooler Heads Have Prevailed” in Turkish-Israel Relations

2010-07-18T09:16:00.001-07:00

Deteriorating ties between Turkey and Israel have been the subject of much analysis and some criticism from Washington following the Gaza flotilla incident in which eight Turkish citizens and one Turkish American were killed after attempting to break Israel’s blockade on Gaza.

In the wake of the incident, two letters were sent to President Obama from Congress supporting Israel in its actions. The Senate letter called on the administration to consider placing the Turkish group that organized the flotilla the IHH, or the Humanitarian Relief Foundation, on the State Department’s list of foreign terrorist organizations. Last week State Department spokesman Mark Toner said at a press briefing that they were “looking at IHH, but it’s a long process to designate something – an organization a Foreign Terrorist Organization.”

According to one senior Turkish source in Washington, if the IHH were to be designated a terrorist organization, it could have negative effects on Turkish-U.S relations. There would be pressure on the Turkish government to label the organizations similarly, and there would be greater scrutiny of the group’s ties within Turkey.

The difference of opinion between the U.S administration and the Turkish government over the IHH stems from a difference in opinion over whether Hamas is in fact a terrorist organization or not, said one House staffer. Turkey does not consider Hamas a terrorist organization, and therefore does not see the alleged financial links between the IHH and Hamas as a reason to label the group as a terrorist organization. This potential fissure in Turkish-U.S relations came up as a result of the hostile encounter between Turkey and Israel. The staffer, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that the steps taken by Congress should be seen as a warning shot to Turkey that it should repair its relationship with Israel.

It seems that the Turkish government has indeed taken the message. Former Congressman Robert Wexler, who co-chaired the Congressional study group on Turkey in the House of Representatives and who is currently the president of the Center for Middle East Peace and Economic Cooperation, in a phone interview said that he believes that Turkish-Israeli relations have taken a turn for the better recently.

“In the last two weeks, cooler heads have prevailed on both sides, and I’m grateful for that,” said Wexler. “Now they can look towards what can be done constructively.”

Turkish-Israeli relations are important for the U.S foreign policy initiatives in the region, Wexler stressed, particularly in bringing together the divided Palestinian leadership of Fatah and Hamas in the pursuit of lasting peace in the region.

“Turkey has always played a unique role because of its ability to play the role of a bridge between East and West and between Israel and certain areas of the Arab world,” said Wexler. “If Turkey’s relationship with Israel is significantly compromised, Turkey’s role as a bridge will be diminished.

By agreeing to a meeting with Israel’s Industry, Trade and Labor minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezar in Brussels at the end of last month, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu showed signs that his government was willing to make steps towards repairing ties with Israel. However, only days after this inconclusive meeting, Davutoğlu went on to state that “Israel should both apologize and pay compensation unilaterally. If those two conditions do not materialize, the diplomatic relations with Israel will be cut off.”

So far there has been virtually no daylight between the Israeli and American position on the matter, and the likelihood of any pressure from Washington on Israel to make the concessions that Turkey has demanded appears to be even less after the apparently successful meeting between President Obama and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington last week.

(Published in the Hürriyet Daily News)

Erdogan Defends "No" Vote in Security Council on Further Iran Sanctions

2010-06-10T08:26:00.000-07:00

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Thursday defended Turkey's "no" vote at Wednesday’s UN Security Council meeting that produced an agreement for the implementation of further sanctions on Iran. Erdogan said that during his country’s negotiations alongside Brazil for the Tehran agreement, which stipulated a transfer of enriched uranium from Iran to Turkey in exchange for uranium fuel rods for medical purposes, Turkey was in constant contact and coordination with the permanent members of the Security Council.

“When we were making strides towards the Tehran agreement we were in contact with the U.N permanent Security Council members,” said Erdogan at the Turkish Arab Economic Forum on Thursday. “Since the beginning we have always advocated a diplomatic solution to the problem. The U.N Security Council said that negotiations could still continue, and Turkey and Brazil will continue to negotiate.”

Erdogan attacked the Security Council’s decision to ratchet up sanctions, accusing certain permanent members of the council of dismissing a diplomatic solution, favoring instead a more hostile approach that Erdogan paralleled to the situations in Iraq and Afghanistan.

“With embargoes there is no way out of the problem. We learned this before. There are hundreds of widows and orphans in Iraq. Who is responsible for this?” said Erdogan, attacking “those people who have turned this region into a region of conflict.”

Erdogan explained that Turkey needed to vote against an additional embargo on Iran because of the fuel-swap agreement that his country had signed. He said that only if Iran proved that it was not standing by the words of its agreement could the international community reject the diplomatic progress that has so far been pioneered by Turkey and Brazil.

“Now that we signed [the agreement with Iran], we have to stand behind these signatures…This is why we said ‘no’ yesterday. If we want to advocate diplomacy, we had to say ‘no’,” said Erdogan. “Iran is behind its words.”

“Ill-Intentioned Propaganda”

Erdogan had some harsh words for critics, both domestic and international, who are concerned that Turkey is shifting away from the west and moving towards the east.

“Those who claim that Turkey is detaching from the west are part of ill-intentioned propaganda,” said Erdogan.

Erdogan reiterated his support for EU accession and said that, despite hindrances coming from some Europeans towards Turkey’s membership bid, Turkey is still committed to meeting the requirements for EU accession.

“Within the European union there are countries that try to slow down negotiations and raise barriers. We are not discouraged. We are still committed,” said Erdogan.

The Turkish Arab Economic Forum at which Erdogan was speaking was formed three years ago after a strong push from Prime Minister Erdogan’s government to strengthen ties with the Arab world. Since then, visa requirements to Turkey for people coming from Syria, Jordan, Lebanon and Libya have been dropped. The trade volume between Turkey and Arab countries went from $7 billion in 2002 to roughly $30 billion today. According to figures cited by the Prime Minister, between 2002 and 2009, $6.2 billion in FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) came into Turkey from Arab countries.

“Each brother or sister who wants to invest in Turkey should know that our doors are wide open to him or her,” said Erdogan.

The developing ties between Turkey and the Arab world stretches beyond economic ties, according to the leaders who were gathered at the forum Thursday. Several, including Turkish Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek, recalled the common history, culture, and religion shared between Turkey and Arab countries

“The Muslim world, led by Turks, led by Arabs, has built great civilizations in the past. The Muslim world was the source for innovation and enlightenment during the 9th and 17th centuries. There is no reason why we cannot go back to our roots,” said Simsek.

Erdogan also waxed poetic about the relationship between Turks and Arabs, quoting Turkish poet Mehmet Akif Ersoy who said that “the Arab is both the left eye and the left hand of the Turk,” which received thundering applause from the audience.

Harsh Words for Israel

Leaders from Turkey and the Arab world spoke at the forum on Wednesday about the need for political cooperation as well, particularly in providing a unified front against Israel’s policies towards the Palestinians. All visiting leaders expressed their condolences and support to Turkey and the Turks who were killed by Israeli soldiers in international waters last week as they were attempting to transport humanitarian supplies to Gaza.

“Turkey’s martyrs are our martyrs as well,” said Amr Moussa, the Secretary General of the Arab League, about those killed by Israel on the flotilla. “We welcome the role Turkey plays” regarding the Arab-Israeli conflict and the pursuit of peace in the region.

Saad Hariri, the prime minister of Lebanon, also expressed thanks to Turkey for the role it is playing in the region.

“I express my condolences to the people of Turkey for the murder of martyrs,” said Hariri.

No word was spared in the condemnations of Israel at the forum. “Our region has undergone such suffering under the criminal, barbaric actions of Israel,” said Hariri.

“At the moment, Israel is the reason for the black hole in the region,” said Amr Moussa.

Erdogan said that Turkey was standing up to state terrorism. He praised those who were on the boat going to Gaza with supplies, lamenting the fate of those who were killed or injured in last week’s attack by Israel.

“We are raising our voice against unfairness…we are against all forms of terror, including state terror,” said Erdogan. “I have seen with my own eyes that in different parts of their bodies there were bullet holes… doesn’t it mean we are keeping our eyes wide shut to state terrorism and piracy on the high seas?”

“While Gaza is under the blockade, we will never sacrifice the principles we believe,” said Erdogan, pledging further support for Gaza.

Following in Poland's EU footsteps raises problems for Turkey

2010-05-17T00:31:00.000-07:00

WARSAW-

There is one story that Poles always tell visiting Turkish delegations. When Poland lost its sovereignty in the late 18^th century to Austria, Prussia and Russia, Ottoman officials continued to include the Polish ambassador in its roll call at international diplomatic gatherings. The symbolic gesture was largely a sleight towards Russia, with whom the Ottoman Empire had uneasy relations; nonetheless, Poles today are still taught this in history class, and it serves as the historical bedrock from which Poles today support Turkey’s European Union Accession process.

There are many things in common between Turkey and Poland that might serve to shed some light on Turkey’s EU accession process. Poland, like Turkey, has a large population of roughly 38 million. Like Turkey, Poland’s eastern provinces are very underdeveloped compared to the rest of the country. Unemployment runs high in both countries. Migrants from the east, from Belarus, Ukraine and Russia come to Poland to work as seasonal laborers.

Given the many demographic similarities, it is unclear to many in Poland why Turkey has not managed to progress on its EU accession progress. Some of the deputy editors of Gazete Wyborca, Poland’s prestigious domestic paper with the highest circulation amongst non-tabloid newspapers, told a visiting delegation of Turkish journalists this week that they supported EU enlargement in general. They also believe that Turkey will join the European Union.

Grzegorz Cydejko, who works for Forbes Poland and is the head of the Warsaw Chapter of the Polish Journalists Association, sees Turkey’s human rights issues and developing democratic institutions as the main barriers to Turkey’s accession.

However, Adam Balcer, Senior Fellow at demosEUROPA and Project Leader of the EU Enlargement and Neighborhood Project, believes that given the similarities between Turkey and Poland, the reason that Turkey has yet to progress very far in its accession process is due to religious differences.

“The thing that separates these two countries [Turkey and Poland] is religion,” said Balcer. “Whatever Turkey does, a group of people will always say no to Turkey.”

Poland’s Path to the EU

How has Poland overcome issues that are problematic for EU regulations on security, economic stability, and immigration?

Poland is currently the largest recipient of EU aid for member states, from member states. For the period from 2007-2013, Poland will receive over 67 billion Euros for development. EU project banners can be seen everywhere in Poland, signaling some new development or restoration project. These developments stand out particularly in Poland’s poorest voivodships, or provinces, Podlaskie, Lubelskie, and Podkarpackie.

In Podlaski, EU funds have done a great deal to help develop the infrastructure, according to Andrezej Kurpiewski, secretary of the Podlaskie Voivodship.

“Infrastructure has completely changed,” said Kurpiewski. “We used to have to go to Warsaw to do shopping. Now people from Warsaw are coming to do shopping here.”

Apart from road infrastructure, EU funds are helping the region to develop universities, technoparks, research institutions, and foster tourism to what is a verdant region with four national parks. However, EU membership has also had some negative effects on Podlaskie. Poland effectively joined the Schengen Area, an area of 25 countries that operate virtually under a single border, in December 2007. This required stricter border controls that have taken their toll on tourism to Poland’s eastern provinces from Belarussian, Russian and Ukrainian nationals.

Turkey shares borders with five countries that are not members of the European Union and has no visa requirements for visitors coming from neighboring Syria and Iraq. This raises the question of whether EU membership may have negative impacts on Turkey’s business ties with its other neighbors. Future attempts to comply with EU border and security requirements may also force a recalibration of Turkey’s foreign policy.

At the Polish-Belarus Border

The Polish-Belarussian border crossing at Kuznicy is “the most modern, most contemporary border in Poland,” according to Major Anatol Kalinowski, deputy head of the Kuznicy border crossing. A total of 43 million Euros went into developing the state of the art border crossing point and the monitored area went from covering 2 hectares to 19 after Poland joined the EU.

“Before that we just had a couple of fences,” said Maciej Czarnecki, spokesman of the Regional Customs Office in Bialystok.

However, problems still arise when bordering poorer, less developed nations. Smuggling, especially of cigarettes, is a huge issue.

“In 2009, Poland seized 29 million cigarettes from the [Belarussian] border,” said Maciej. “10 thousand people were detained…for example, recently they [the border police] seized 5 million cigarettes hidden in a cake.”

Human trafficking is also a huge issue. Every truck that goes across the border is X-rayed, and some are randomly subjected to a machine that tests if there is a heartbeat on board.

“At the border, they put people like ants into the corners of the trucks,” said Maciej.

The mind boggles at what logistical challenges would await Turkey were it to have the responsibility of patrolling the EU’s border with Iraq, Iran, and Syria.

EU Creates Global Vagabonds

Poland has an even larger problem with its own population emigrating out of the country to countries in Western Europe. Many Polish laborers, mostly unskilled, work in Germany, the UK, and Ireland among others. According to Izabela Grabowska-Lusinka, head of the research unit of the Center of Migration Research, many people left Poland with good degrees thinking that there was no opportunity for them in Poland. Others left because they did not have good enough English to operate in their field. What happened was that they started working as unskilled labor in the west and could not return to the sector they were trained in when they returned to Poland.

However, Grabowska-Lusinka also thinks that the problem of emigration after EU accession was exaggerated in the Polish media.

“What happened in the Polish public discourse, in the Polish media, the media started exaggerating, just after accession, the number of people who left Poland,” said Grabowska-Lusinka. “There was a lot of scare-mongering scenarios that Poland would experience a kind of brain-drain.”

Many Poles who were working abroad in the UK and Ireland came back to Poland after the global economic crisis severely affected those countries’ economies. However, most Polish workers now travel freely back and forth, with no set plan, and move depending on their economic opportunities. These people, who take advantage of the EU system, have become an entirely new category of workers that have been deemed “global vagabonds.”

“There is not that much planning, recruiting, organizing, all these things that were in the pre-accession period. Migration is more spontaneous,” said Grabowska-Lusinka. “Free movement of labor brought this.”

(A similar version of this article first appeared in the Hürriyet Daily News)

U.S-Turkish Business Ties Relatively Unaffected by Diplomatic Setbacks

2010-05-05T14:05:00.000-07:00

Foreign Direct Investment, or FDI, in Turkey coming from the U.S. will fully recover to pre-global financial crisis levels, according to the chairwoman of the American Business Forum in Turkey, or ABFT.

“Recovery started in 2009, but in 2010 it’s going to be much, much better. We will reach the 2007 figures in 2011,” Rahşan Cebe, chairwoman of the board at ABFT, told the Hürriyet Daily News & Economic Review in a Tuesday interview.

After a steady increase in both FDI and the number of American businesses operating in Turkey over the past decade, numbers fell drastically in 2008. Cebe said she believes this was almost completely due to the global financial crisis, discounting the idea that recent diplomatic problems between the two countries had affected business ties.

“Misunderstandings can occasionally occur between all countries, but business is business. These misunderstandings haven’t been catastrophic,” said Cebe.

The bilateral diplomatic relationship has suffered in recent months as U.S. officials have voiced concern over Turkey’s deteriorating relationship with Israel.

In early March 2010, the Turkish government recalled its ambassador to the U.S. for consultations after a resolution passed a U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee calling on President Barack Obama to recognize the killings of Armenians in the collapsing Ottoman Empire in 1915 as “genocide.”

Cebe said the business relationship is susceptible to diplomatic setbacks, but said these were not major issues. “They were small misunderstandings between countries that have been sorted out,” she told the Daily News.

The U.S. exports a great deal of defense equipment and technology to Turkey. Some in the U.S., however, have been warning of Turkey’s “shifting” geopolitical role as one that is moving closer to the “East,” particularly as Turkey is no longer a bulwark against the Soviet Union.

Turkey refused to let the U.S. open a second front from the north against Iraq in 2003; now, many point to its deteriorating military relationship with Israel. However, Cebe does not believe that Turkey is turning its back on the West and is confident that trade, including in the defense sector, will continue to prosper between the U.S. and Turkey.

“I don’t think that Turkey is moving away from the West. It’s just opening up to the East. We’re still as close as we’ve been to the West and now we’re opening up to the East as well,” said Cebe.

Bureaucratic, but progressing

“This government is quite good. But it can be better,” said Cebe, speaking of the Justice and Development Party, or AKP, government. “I personally think the Turkish government needs to be less bureaucratic. They made one good thing, by forming Investment Support and Promotion Agency in Turkey, or ISPAT, which reports directly to the prime minister.”

ISPAT works with foreign businesses and investors who need help entering the Turkish market. Led by Alparslan Korkmaz, it offers investment advice, as well as legal and bureaucratic assistance.

“They’re doing a fantastic job,” said Cebe. “Now if they could have something like that for companies that have already invested in Turkey and have less bureaucracy, that would be fantastic.”

One thing that such FDI-friendly policy can help with is attracting small and medium-sized businesses to Turkey from the U.S.

“One of the negative things I see is that American businesses don’t know Turkey very well. I mean medium-sized businesses. I think there is a huge potential for medium-sized businesses to do trade with Turkey. It would be fantastic if we could promote that,” said Cebe. “We’ve got the American conglomerates in Turkey but not the smaller, medium-sized businesses.”

Overall, Cebe said she is pleased with the progress being made by the current government to encourage investment and value business relationships with countries like the U.S. as priorities.

“They’ve now started to be more active. After Obama’s visit, they formed working groups to increase trade between Turkey and America, so all that is very good,” said Cebe.

(This article was first published in the Hürriyet Daily News)

Erdogan's Reaches out to Turkish Cypriot and Greek Cypriot Media

2010-03-04T14:47:00.000-08:00

Istanbul-

Turkey would be willing to reduce its troops on the divided island of Cyprus if a settlement is reached between Turkish and Greek Cypriots, the Turkish Prime Minister said in his first statement to Greek Cypriot journalists.

Turkey is still committed to facilitating a solution between the two sides, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said Saturday, speaking to a gathering of Turkish Cypriot and Greek Cypriot journalists about the long-standing Cyprus dispute at the Dolmabahçe Palace in Istanbul.

"I'm very happy," said Aysu Basri, a journalist who works for Turkish Cypriot paper Yeni Düzen and who attended the meeting. She believes that Erdoğan is showing "sincere behavior" in addressing the Greek Cypriots.

"Erdoğan's statements were not new, but this meeting with Greek Cypriots was important because it means that the Turkish side is having direct contact with the Greek side," said Basri. "It was very exciting because it was the first time the prime minister tried to make a statement to the Greek Cypriots. On the Greek side, there is no direct contact and they get their news from translations. Sometimes those translations can be manipulated."

Cenk Mutluyakalı, editor in chief of Yeni Düzen, feels similarly about Erdoğan's outreach.

"This was a well thought out gesture on the part of Turkey," Mutluyakalı said. "The Greek Cypriot press has been portraying Ankara as the one stalling the peace process. Yet, by talking to the Greek Cypriot press, the prime minister talked about Turkey's vision for a lasting peace on the island. The Greek press is now full of the prime minister's statements about his views on peace."

Stefanos Evripidou, who attended Saturday's meeting, wrote for the Greek Cypriot paper the Cyprus Mail that, "an hour and a half after the meeting began, 30 minutes over schedule, Erdoğan looked visibly more relaxed among his Cypriot audience." He also quoted Erdoğan as saying at the end of the meeting: "We'll do it together, thank you very much."

Clear message

Turkish Cypriot President Mehmet Ali Talat and his Greek Cypriot counterpart Dimitris Christofias have held reunification talks since September 2008 but have agreed on little beyond their mutual will to reach an agreement. An upcoming presidential election in Turkish Cyprus and a recent resolution adopted by the Greek Cypriot parliament refusing any guarantors or rights of intervention by outsidershave been casting shadows on peace talks.

"The clear message was that any deal that Talat and his associates reach will have Turkey's full blessing as long as it is based on political equality," Egemen Bağış, state minister and chief negotiator for EU talks who also attended the meeting, told the Hürriyet Daily News & Economic Review.

A statement from Talat's office welcomed Erdoğan's efforts to reach out to the Greek Cypriot side. "The messages of Erdoğan in his statement at the weekend and especially his effort to convey them to the Greek Cypriot people through Greek Cypriot intellectuals is the most recent and clearest expression of the Turkish side's decisiveness about a settlement," read the statement from the president's office.

According to journalists who were present at the meeting, the prime minister confirmed once again that the number of Turkish troops in Cyprus could be reduced if a settlement is reached - a move that had previously been tied to the U.N. backed "Annan plan." The Annan plan, a proposal to settle the dispute by creating a federal system of governance, was accepted by Turkish Cypriots but failed due to a rejection by Greek Cypriots in a referendum held in 2004.

Bağış made it clear that Turkey is not the only country that has troops on the island. "Other countries should consider withdrawing their troops from the island," he said.

(This article appeared in Hurriyet Daily News on March 2)

Optimistic ‘Social-Democratic’ Political Movement Presents Policy

2010-02-10T10:27:00.000-08:00

Members of the Turkish Degisim Hareket (TDH), or Turkish Change Movement led by Sisli Mayor Mustafa Sarigul, put forward their vision on a wide range of policies in a press conference today.

Foreign Policy

Responding to Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu’s vision for ‘zero problems with neighbors, members of the movement reacted strongly, calling for a prioritization of Turkey’s “firm anchorage in the Euro-Atlantic community”

“When we look at the ‘zero problems’ with neighbors policy what has been the result of it? Actually we have created problems with our friends, be it Azerbaijan, be it Israel,“ said Zeynep Dereli, a founding member and vice president of the party.

While members of the TDH say they appreciate some of the steps the current government has made in foreign affairs, they believe that their approach has been flawed. Despite the recent dropping of visa requirements for travel between Syria and Turkey, Faruk Logulu, former ambassador to the United States and member of the TDH, noted that “none of the problems Turkey has with Syria have been solved,” among them border claims and water rights.

Asked how they would vote were the question of fresh sanctions on Iran to come before a vote in the UN Security Council, in which Turkey is a non-permanent member, Ms. Dereli responded that “we should vote with the Euro-Atlantic region.”

The TDH has been making a concerted effort to talk to foreign countries, visiting embassies in Ankara and European capitals. Mr. Logolu also expressed his intention of visiting Washington, while Ms. Dereli criticized the current Justice and Development Party, AKP, of letting Turkey’s efforts to join the European Union go by the wayside.

Dividing the Left?

The TDH movement intends to become a political party prior to the next elections and expects to win, according to Mr. Logulu, at least 13% of the vote. Mr. Logulu denies that the movement, which defines itself as social democratic and whose leader is an ex-member of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), will further divide the left wing constituency in Turkey.

“CHP does not seem to have the drive, the attraction, the arguments to come to power. They have not been able to succeed in significantly increasing their percentage of votes,” said Logulu.

The TDH hopes to appeal to constituents from across the political spectrum, “from left to right…nationalists and even ultranationalists,” according to Logulu. The question remains as to which political party stands to lose out most from the entrance of the TDH into the political realm- the current governing AKP or opposition parties.

“Where does this movement get its support from? The movement will get less votes from the CHP than from everybody else. In fact the movement gets more votes from the AKP than the CHP,” said Logulu. He did, however, admit that some of these numbers came from surveys conducted by pollsters close to the TDH movement.

(A portion of this article was published in Hurriyet Daily News)

Democratic Reform Process, EU Accession “Closely Linked”

2009-11-26T08:21:00.000-08:00

New Article:

Thursday, November 26, 2009

ISTANBUL – Hürriyet Daily News

The European Union praised Turkey’s efforts to grant its citizens of Kurdish origin more rights and to end the decades-old terror problem, linking it with the candidate country’s aspirations to join the union.

"The reform process in Turkey and the accession process are closely linked to each other," EU term president Sweden’s Foreign Minister Carl Bildt said during annual Turkey-EU Troika meeting in Istanbul. Bildt also praised the Turkish government’s pro-active foreign policy, especially in its region. “We appreciate the active Turkish role in foreign policy,” said Bildt.

The highest forum for political dialogue between the EU and Turkey convened Thursday with the participation of Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, Chief Negotiator Egemen Bağış, the EU’s next term president, Spanish minister Diego Lopez Garrido, and EU representative in Ankara, Marc Pierini. EU Commissioner Olli Rehn could not make it to the meetings today.

Bildt has renewed the EU’s call for Turkey to open its ports and airspace to Greek Cyprus, but Davutoğlu said the issue would be addressed after a solution to the division of the island is reached.

Challenged by reporters over Turkey’s growing ties with Iran, Davutoğlu said that “all countries should be in a position to carry out” peaceful nuclear programs and that he wished to see “Iran better integrated with the world,” something he believes Turkey’s recent efforts will achieve.

Bildt supported Davutoglu’s statements, saying that “we do need to engage with Iran,” and that all countries have the “right to peaceful nuclear activities.”

Speaking on negative signals from the EU regarding Turkey’s EU accession process, Davutoglu said that the EU needs to “break down the Berlin wall that exists in the minds of people, not just politically, but socially and culturally”

“We will hopefully see the chapter on the environment open in December,” said Bağış. .

Diego Lopez Garrido, Secretary of State for the EU, expressed hopes for progress on Turkey’s EU accession while challenging Turkey to do more.

“Its clear that Spain is a country that believes in the accession process,” said Garrido, but “it depends on the political will. We have the political will…It depends mainly on the Turkish side.”

Asked how many negotiation chapters Garrido hopes will open under Spain’s EU presidency, he refused to give a definite answer, saying, “We can’t give a number now, because it’s not a question of mathematics.”

Turkish University Awards Nobel Prize Winner Honorary Doctorate

2009-11-25T11:54:00.000-08:00

New Article published:

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

ISTANBUL – Hürriyet Daily News

Costa Rican President and Nobel Peace Prize Winner Oscar Arias Sanchez was awarded an honorary doctorate from Bahçeşehir University on Tuesday in recognition of his personal achievements toward creating peace.

His speech was preceded by the signing of an agreement of cooperation between Bahçeşehir University and Costa Rica’s University of Peace to create a new Center for Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies in Istanbul.

Sanchez spoke to an audience of professors, deans, students and members of the press about the challenges of creating peace in the world and the specific need to focus on students. “Preparing students who not only understand what peace and freedom mean but also live these values in action should be the goal of every teacher and every classroom,” said Sanchez.

Sanchez also took the opportunity to promote global initiatives for peace that he is working on, including the Arms Trade Treaty, currently under consideration at the United Nations, which aims to regulate the flow of arms through trade.

“The destructive power of the 640 million small arms and light weapons in the world, 74 percent in the hands of civilians, is one of the primary threats to our shared security,” Sanchez said. “We must ensure that this treaty reaches the end of the journey it has begun.”

Offering Costa Rica as an example, Sanchez said in 1948 his country was the first in history to voluntarily abolish its army. He compared this with Atatürk’s vision, citing his quotation, “Yurtta barış, dünyada barış,” or, “Peace at home, peace in the world.”

Sanchez also spoke of his hopes for the future, announcing his dreams in bold, declarative phrases: “Victory of tolerance over cruelty. Victory of wisdom over violence. Victory of peace in our time.”

Turkish President Abdullah Gül welcomed his Costa Rican counterpart Oscar Arias in the Turkish capital, Ankara, on Wednesday. Gül received Arias with full military honors at the Çankaya Presidential Residence. The two leaders are set to hold a tete-a-tete meeting before appearing at a joint press conference later on.

Transatlantic Academic Cooperation

The rector of the University of Peace, John J. Maresca, spoke briefly of his hopes for the new joint initiative between his university and Bahçeşehir. “We believe in peace, we believe it can be built,” said Maresca.

Article 2 of the agreement signed between the two universities outlines steps that will be taken to enhance cooperation. It includes student exchange, visiting professor exchange, joint research projects and the establishment of the Center for Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies, the details of which will be worked out between the University of Peace’s International Law and Human Rights Program and Bahçeşehir’s Faculty of Law.

Bahçeşehir University Vice President Erol Sezer told the Hürriyet Daily News & Economic Review that programs for student exchange can be put into practice very quickly. Five places at the University of Peace have already been reserved for Bahçeşehir exchange students with the signing of today’s agreement.

“The Center for Conflict Resolution can be established in the very near future because it is in our interest and we have experts like Vamık Volkan,” Sezer said. “Bahçeşehir would be a perfect place to establish such a center.”

Sezer hoped that a few international relations graduate students or law school graduates would take advantage of the program beginning next year. Costa Rican students from the University of Peace will also be able to take advantage of the program starting next year.

Israeli Trade Minister to Arrive in Turkey

2009-11-22T14:08:00.000-08:00

Israel’s minister of Industry, Trade and Labor, Benjamin Ben-Eliezer, is set to arrive in Turkey today for the annual Turkish-Israeli Economic Conference. He will hold talks with both the Turkish Agricultural Minister, Mehdi Eker, and Defense Minister, Vecdi Gonul.

Diplomatic tensions between the two countries have risen in the last few months following a host of spats. Turkey voiced its objections over Israel’s Operation Cast Lead in Gaza last year, the most conspicuous of which was seen in January when Prime Minister Recep Tayip Erdogan’s walked out of a panel discussion at the World Economic Forum in Davos after a disagreement with Israeli President Shimon Peres. In October, a joint military operation in Turkey, codenamed Anatolian Eagle, was cancelled, reportedly because Turkish officials had asked Israel not to participate. In the same month, a Turkish television show called “Ayrilik” caused an uproar in Israel after it portrayed Israeli soldiers killing Palestinian children.

Ben-Eliezer’s visit will be the first official visit to Turkey by an Israeli Minister since the events in October. Eliezer was the only Israeli official to attend a dinner at the Turkish Embassy for the celebrations of Turkey’s Republic Day.

Commenting on the upcoming visit, the Chairman of the Turkish chapter of the Turkish-Israeli Business Council, Ekrem Guvendiren, expressed his hopes.

“I am optimistic,” said Guvendiren. “It will go very well indeed. There is no reason it shouldn’t.”

Despite the recent diplomatic speed bumps, Guvendiren insists that trade between the countries has not suffered. He said that between 2007 and 2008, both trade and investment between the two countries had increased and that numbers for this year suggest it will rise even higher.

“Trade between the two countries were not affected by the [diplomatic] strain,” said Guvendiren. However, he admits that tourism from Israel to Turkey has fallen 40% in the wake of deteriorating bilateral ties.

Israel’s Foreign Minister, Avigdor Lieberman, also commented on Ben-Eliezer’s trip, telling the Israeli newspaper, Haaretz, that Eliezer’s “trip to Turkey is... an important trip, but has not been agreed upon by the Foreign Ministry.” Commenting on speculation that one of the goals of the visit is to discuss Turkey resuming its role as a mediator for talks between Israel and Syria, Lieberman said that “after all of Turkey's insults and tongue-lashing against Israel, they can't be a mediator”

Islamic Leaders Pledge Economic Cooperation

2009-11-11T11:46:00.000-08:00

A piece of mine as published in Hurriyet Daily News- photos were not included in original publication:

Monday, November 9, 2009
ISTANBUL –

Gathering in Istanbul on Monday, the Organization of the Islamic Conference, or OIC’s, heads of state discussed economic cooperation during the world’s worst economic crisis since the 1930s.

In his opening statements, President Abdullah Gül urged leaders to sign the trade preferential system, or TPS-OIC. “I call upon the distinguished heads of state to once again precipitate the finalization of the signing and ratification process,” he said.

Four countries have so far ratified the proposed TPS-OIC, although at least six more must sign for the measure to pass.

Gül reiterated his support for increasing OIC cooperation, saying, “Turkey’s foreign trade volume with OIC countries increased fivefold during the last eight years. I would like to renew our resolve to maintain this trend.”

Furthermore, Gül said the important commercial and economic relations Turkey has with both the West and the Islamic world are not contradictory.

“The European Union accession process and our participation in the Standing Committee for Economic and Commercial Cooperation of the OIC support each other,” he said.

Gül offered his congratulations to Afghanistan’s President Hamid Karzai on his recent election victory and pledged to continue economic support for the war-torn nation.

Karzai requested more support from fellow OIC nations, asking them to “open up markets to Afghan products.” He said the OIC’s 550-million-strong workforce was the organization’s strength.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, meanwhile, stressed the economic failures of capitalism and criticized Western financial systems based on “usury,” urging instead a new economic order based on Islamic models.

“The world, the planet, could witness the positive ramifications of a political system that is based on divine teachings,” he said.

Saturday’s OIC ministerial meetings proposed several other structural measures to facilitate economic cooperation. A report by the OIC’s research council proposed the establishment of an OIC commodities market to be based in Istanbul, Cairo or Dubai. The report also discussed the October agreements between OIC countries that called for the creation of a “Central Banks Association” that would hold annual meetings as well as a chairmanship based on a rotating “troika” system.

TOBB, IDB vow closer cooperation

2009-11-09T11:45:00.000-08:00

I have a new piece in the Hurriyet Daily News, here is the article and some pictures that were not published to go with them:

Sunday, November 8, 2009
Fadil Aliriza
ISTANBUL - Hürriyet Daily News

The head of Turkey’s Union of Chamber and Commodity Exchanges, or TOBB, met with the head of the Islamic Development Bank, or IDB, on Saturday to announce future cooperation plans.

Rifat Hisarcıklıoğlu, head of TOBB, pledged to increase joint projects, of which two were completed last year, to a total of six.

“We believe that we will do important work, beneficial work for the Islamic communities,” Hisarcıklıoğlu said

This cooperation follows the memorandum of understanding signed between the two organizations in Jeddah on Feb. 5.

Ahmed Muhammad Ali, head of the IDB, said he was grateful for the continued cooperation between the two organizations, telling his counterpart, “You are helping the IDB to achieve its goal and its mission.”

The projects outlined by Hisarcıklıoğlu focus on investments in Africa and the Middle East, including a “capacity-building program for Iranian chambers [of commerce] and knowledge-sharing of Turkey’s economic development progress.”

The regional, private sector and economic integration policy signaled by TOBB on Saturday comes on the heels of important diplomatic agreements between Turkey and Iran, including a large bilateral deal on natural gas transit. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is expected to arrive Monday for the OIC conference.

The Turkish government has a 7.7 percent stake in the IDB, while the IDB’s current operations in Turkey stand at $1.6 billion.

The meeting took place on the sidelines of Saturday’s meeting of the Organization of the Islamic Conference’s, or OIC, Standing Committee for Economic and Commercial Cooperation, COMCEC. Ministerial meetings at the COMCEC conference looked at other broader issues affecting OIC countries, including the food crisis, the financial crisis and energy cooperation.

Turkey's Foreign Policy Shifts

2009-10-21T14:08:00.000-07:00

Istanbul, October 21-

At a conference in Istanbul, Prime Minister Recep Tayip Erdogan spoke on Monday about the lead role he envisions Turkey taking in the Middle East.

“It is imperative to establish a new global order,” Erdogan said at the istanbul forum, a 2 day conference which brought policy makers and analysts from both the Middle East and the West to discuss regional issues.

“Turkey has a major role to play in the region,” said Erdogan. His soaring rhetoric, which vacillated between that of peacemaker and populist, appeared to place Turkey at the head of a new global power structure as “a shining star of this world.”

Responding to coverage of the diplomatic fraying between his country and Israel in recent months, Erdogan parried that “not everyone" in the region "has to feel trust for us.” This contrasts with his government's stated goal of acting as honest broker and once again hosting talks between Israel and Syria. Earlier talks broke down with the start of the 2008 Israel-Gaza War.

Relations between Turkey and Israel, which had always been strong, have begun to deteriorate. In the wake of the 2008 assault on Gaza, Turkey became an outspoken critic of Israel, particularly over the high number of civilian casualties which occurred during the conflict. In January, Erdogan walked out of a panel at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland after a dispute with Israeli President Shimon Peres over the Gaza War. Tensions have risen in recent days following the cancellation of a joint NATO military operation, where Turkey reportedly had chosen to exclude Israel, prompting the U.S and other NATO members to withdraw. Despite official statements from all sides that the cancellation was due to technical problems, both Prime Minister Erdogan and his Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu have suggested in subsequent press conferences that the cancellation was in response to disagreements over the 2008 Gaza assault.

Congressman Robert Wexler, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee’s Subcommittee on Europe and an outspoken supporter of Israel, responded directly to the Prime Minister’s foreign policy program in a panel discussion at the istanbul forum.

“Why is it that warmer relations with Syria, why is it the new relationship with Iran, why is it that a more prominent Turkey has to, it seems, come at the expense of Turkey’s relationship with Israel?” said Wexler.

Ibrahim Kalin, foreign policy advisor to Prime Minister Erdogan, countered Wexler in the panel and claimed that there was no black and white alignment into which Turkish foreign policy must fall. He went on to say that “you cannot have security of Israel at the expense of the security of Palestinians.”

Tension at the forum seemed to crescendo when Jamal Zahalka, an Arab member of the Knesset, viciously attacked President Obama’s approach to Middle East Peace, stating that “the main obstacle for any settlement in the Middle East is the American Policy,” citing Obama’s commitment to “unbreakable” relations between America and Israel, regardless of changes in Israeli policy.

The conference was sponsored by the German Marshall Fund, Stratim, and SETA (The Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research) whose contributors often include members of Turkey's governing AK party.

Today, the American and Israeli militaries began joint exercises of the annual Juniper Cobra. This year, it is reported that the exercises will simulate possible missile attacks on Israel, presumably as a response to fears of Iranian nuclear ambitions. Turkey currently enjoys warm relations with Iran.

New Greek Prime Minister Arrives in Turkey

2009-10-09T09:39:00.000-07:00

The newly elected Greek Prime Minister, George Papandreou of the Greek Socialist party (PASOK), arrived in Turkey today on his first foreign visit. Mr. Papandreou also has the role of Foreign Minister and was greeted by Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu at the airport. He is scheduled to meet with his other counterpart, Prime Minister Recep Tayip Erdogan, later in the day.

"This is a very significant visit" said Davutoglu. "It shows the significance that [Mr. Papandreou] attributes to relations with Turkey."

Mr. Davutoglu said that Mr. Papandreou reiterated his support for Turkey's EU accession and that he is hopeful that there will be progress towards finding a solution to the Cyprus issue. He notes that the visit reinforces that this is a "period of peace" for Turkey. However, he hinted at possible conflict with his Greek counterpart when he noted that despite Turkey's commitment to finding a solution for the divided island, "we do not see the same commitment on the Greek side."

The Ministers attended a nearly three hour long meeting of the South East European Cooperation Process (SEECP), of which Turkey currently holds the chair. The SEECP seeks to improve regional integration, particularly on energy, infrastructure, trade liberalization and the promotion of investments.

Both the Turkish Foreign Minister and the next-in-line chair of the SEECP, Milan Rocen, stressed that regional cooperation was, in the words of Rocen, "the fastest way to European and Atlantic integration."

While Turkey is set to sign a set of protocol with Armenia tomorrow that will attempt to normalize relations between the two countries, Mr. Davutoglu gave no new comments on the matter. He said rather, that he will focusing on the Balkans next week after he returns from trips to Damascus and Baghdad.

Post IMF protests

2009-10-07T13:35:00.000-07:00

October 6-

Mass protests against the IMF and Worldbank took place this morning in Taksim Square. In the afternoon, there are still occasional skirmishes. Tear gas lingers in the air, red paint trickles down the trolley tracks after police had thrown it on protestors in order to identify them. The policeman pictured to the left, holding a tear gas gun in his left hand and wearing his gas mask on his head, is walking back to a temporary police rally point after a scuffle not far from the Mosque on Istiklal Caddesi.

Several shopwindows are smashed and graffiti is tagged on the main street saying "IMF DEFOL", or "IMF Go Away." Police are still posted at key points around the city in case of additional violence. Throughout the afternoon helicopters make sorties over the area, and different tributary streets of Istiklal are infrequently plagued by tear gas and protesting.

A police barricade set up in Elmadag, halfway between Taksim Square and the site of the IMF meetings less than half a mile away.

Police standing next to one of the armored vehicles used to spray high powered water on protestors.

Police set up a barricade around Taksim Square behind which they keep a fleet of patrol cars and armored vehicles.

At the mosque on Istiklal police remain ready for further confrontations.

A green armored car quickly paves its way through the busy street.

Istanbul Sketch

2009-10-04T08:11:00.000-07:00

Istanbul, Oct-3:

On Saturday, several small press conferences were held at the annual IMF/Worldbank meetings. Three separate conferences targeted specific regions, Europe, Central Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa, and consisted of IMF officials prescribing economic medicine to reporters from their home countries.

A press conference for the G-24, an organization of developing countries that predates the G-7 failed to attract more than a dozen journalists and two unmanned cameras. Two of its very own panelists failed to turn up for the conference, despite the moderator’s insistence that they would show up soon.

The only exciting moment came when, failing to draw more than two questions from the reporters gathered, the Brazilian representative, Rogerio Studart, took it upon himself to add some commentary. Much his speech was international economic cooperation pablum. However, at the end, he seemed to suggest that the G-20 accept a representative from the G-24. Pushed by a reporter if he meant to call for the creation of a G-21, the Brazilian backed off. However, his counterpart Amar Bhattacharya piped up and said that it was an “efficient way to make the G-20 inclusive”

All this G-confusion led the U.S Secretary of Treasury, Timothy Giethner to announce at his press conference at night “no G-innovations,” and “no more!” G-questions after repeated queries from reporters.

Geithner’s press conference was by far the most frustrating for the gathered reporters. He was the first speaker of the day to use the podium, refusing to sit down. He was the first to appear on stage by himself. He was the first, and probably the only one at the meetings, to speak in the absence of translators. With his knuckles clenching the sides of his podium turning white, sweat glistening on his upper lip, Secretary Geithner marched through his prepared statement, adding the occasional flourish to the text to appear more down to earth, more like the common man, someone you can relate to.

Journalists didn’t bother to introduce themselves before asking questions. Dutifully, the gathered press posed questions and received no answers. Some questions highlighted contradictions in the Administration’s rhetoric, for example the desire to simultaneously keep a strong dollar and for trade balances to come together. Geithner obliged those gathered in weaving the rhetoric together without any apparent contradiction, or synthesis for that matter.

Preliminary IMF/Worldbank Meetings

2009-10-03T00:42:00.000-07:00

Preliminary meetings were held yesterday in Istanbul on the eve of the IMF and World Bank annual meetings. Expectations are high for these leading international financial organizations bodies in the wake of the Pittsburgh G-20 summit and the continuing global economic downturn.

Global Economic Outlook

One day ahead of their annual meetings, the heads of the IMF and the World Bank said that despite positive developments in the global economy, their aim is to reinforce activist, stimulatory economic policies in the hopes that they will continue.

“We’ve broken the fall of the financial crisis,” said Robert Zoellick, President of the World Bank, in a morning press conference. Dominique Strauss Kahn, Managing Director of the IMF echoed Zoellick’s comments saying “The global economy has turned a corner.” However, both men acknowledged the long-term ramifications of the global recession. “Unemployment is going to continue going up, and it’s going to take a while to come down,” warned Zoellick.

The “long shadow” of unemployment, and the risk posed by a “premature withdrawal from the stimulus”, according to Kahn, require that countries maintain their current level of economic cooperation and work towards improving financial stability through better regulation.

Kahn sees the economic crisis as a mandate for greater IMF power, noting that “this annual meeting may be the start of a new IMF,” one that plays a lead role in this “defining moment in global governance.” In contrast, Zoellick believes that the legacy of this crisis will be “changed economic power relations,” a multi-polar economy that “will be more stable.”

IMF loan to Turkey

Turkey is hosting the meetings for a second time since the annual meetings began, a first for any country outside the United States. Looming over the conference is a potential IMF loan to Turkey, which has become a highly politicized issue.

Although the GDP is down, the public debt has risen sharply along with unemployment in Turkey since the financial crisis took hold. On September 26, Prime Minister Erdogan reinforced previous messages from his government to the IMF, reiterating that there should be no political conditions attached to a loan to Turkey. Economy Minister Ali Babacan, who unveiled Turkey’s medium-range economic plan on September 16, has been arguing that the Turkish economy is doing well without any IMF assistance.

“The Turkish banking system is sound,” Babacan reiterated today in his own press conference shortly after Kahn made his remarks.

Babacan argued that the global downturn has not deeply affected Turkey, and that Turkey was not in a “crisis psychology” because it “did not have any uncertainty in its financial structure”.

The Turkish minister refused to comment on a possible IMF loan, stating that negotiations have been suspended for the duration of the meetings.

Kahn also avoided the issue by saying “The Turkish economy is doing rather well. I’m happy with what’s going on in this country.” According to Kahn, the IMF is “not looking for customers” but was ready to help Turkey if it showed a need for economic assistance.

Istanbul Financial Center Project

Babacan used his press conference to promote a plan that the government is calling the “Istanbul Financial Center Project.” The move aims to capitalize on what Babacan sees as the shift of economic power from west to east. Accordingly, he sees Istanbul as an alternative financial center in the post-crisis climate.

A comprehensive report on the project is being produced by the Turkish Union of Banks. The plan, interestingly, calls for the expanded use of financial derivatives in Turkish markets at a time when many governments are calling for stricter regulations and oversight of complex financial products. Babacan justified the move by saying that this would allow Istanbul to “compete with other global financial centers.”

Five big Turkish unions rejected invitations to attend the IMF meetings to protest IMF political intervention.

IMF comes to Istanbul

2009-09-30T10:41:00.000-07:00

Istanbul is set to host the semiannual IMF and Worldbank meetings from October 4-7. Early preliminary meetings have begun to take place. Today the IMF presented its half-yearly Global Financial Stability Report, wherein it presented positive news about world economic recovery.

The meetings are being held Istanbul on Cumhurriyet Street between Taksim and Osmanbey, in the same complex as the Hilton hotel. Security can be seen all around downtown Istanbul.

Near Taksim, on Tarlabasi Street

Outside of the meetings

Even in Nisantasi, half a mile from the site, a public park was closed. Only bored policemen could be seen strolling within the confines they themselves had set up, sitting in benches across from busts of Ottoman rulers, and of course, Ataturk:

300 police are stationed around the area, but only about 100 people came out to demonstrate the meetings today. However, more are expected for the rest of the week and the weekend as the meetings continue. Five major labor unions rejected invitations from the IMF to attend.

The meetings come at a time when a possible IMF loan to Turkey looks like it may not take place. Ankara still has not signed on to the deal and last Saturday, Prime Minister Erdogan said that the IMF should not put any political conditions on a loan to Turkey. Others in the government have said that they don't need an IMF loan and that Turkey is performing well in the current global economic downturn. Economy minister Ali Babacan put forward a rather modest medium-term economic proposal on September 16th that intends to tackle public spending starting in 2011. The reasoning, Babacan said, was that a "premature exit from stimulus packages may risk the recovery." Many foreign observers view the proposal positively, although, it may have ultimately backfired as IMF chief Dominique Strauss Kahn said on September 20th that "there are no indications that Turkey's economy needs help for now. If in the future Turkey needs IMF help we will be happy to provide that."

U.S - Iranian policy and the Turkish factor

2009-09-14T11:02:00.000-07:00

News Analysis

On Friday, the Obama administration notified Congress of a possible sale of missiles to Turkey, worth $7.8 billion. Two major reasons have been identified as motivating this deal. First, predictably, is to gain business from Turkey, which is also looking at potential missile purchases from Russian and Chinese arms manufacturers. However, the second reason is more interesting.

On July 26, speaking in Bangkok, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said:

We want Iran to calculate what I think is a fair assessment, that if the United States extends a defense umbrella over the region, if we do even more to support the military capacity of those in the Gulf, it’s unlikely that Iran will be any stronger or safer, because they won’t be able to intimidate and dominate as they apparently believe they can once they have a nuclear weapon.

In line with this notion of a "defense umbrella", other large American arms deals in the region have been announced, including a "$220 million artillery rocket sale to Jordan and a possible $187 million sale of F-16 fighter-carried weapons to Morocco".

Of course, it is not clear that this approach is set policy. In fact, very little of the U.S policy is clearly defined. Questioned on Meet the Press, by David Gregory on her use of the term "defense umbrella" and overall U.S policy towards Iran, Mrs. Clinton went back and forth:

SEC'Y CLINTON: ...First, we’re going to do everything we can to prevent you from ever getting a nuclear weapon. But your pursuit is futile, because we will never let Iran–nuclear-armed, not nuclear-armed, it is something that we view with great concern, and that’s why we’re doing everything we can to prevent that from ever happening.

MR. GREGORY: All right, but let’s be specific. Are you talking about a nuclear umbrella?

SEC’Y CLINTON: We, we are, we are not talking in specifics, David, because, you know, that would come later, if at all. You know, my view is you hope for the best, you plan for the worst. Our hope is–that’s why we’re engaged in the president’s policy of engagement toward Iran–is that Iran will understand why it is in their interest to go along with the consensus of the international community

In the same program the Secretary (simultaneously) suggested pursuing diplomatic engagement, preventing nuclear weaponization at all costs ("we're going to do everything we can"), and a nuclear umbrella strategy. All three approaches are complicated by the Iranian government's lack of legitimacy after the disputed election as well as increasing pressure on the U.S from Israel's right-leaning government to take strong action on Iran.

However, with regards to the idea of a nuclear umbrella and its possible connection to the recent announcements of arms deals in the region, there is an additional problem. The missile sales were announced last Friday. On Sunday, Turkey's foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoglu was in Iran. In addition to the impressive growth in bilateral trade, (estimated at $11 billion in 2008), relations between the two countries seems to be at a high point in other areas. According to the Tehran Times, Iranian Foreign Minister, Manouchehr Mouttaki called the relations between his country and Turkey "strategic and comprehensive". At their meeting, the two ministers committed themselves to cooperating against Kurdish terrorists in Northern Iraq, implying a degree of military cooperation. Such cooperation between Turkey and Iran would surely hinder any U.S attempt to use Turkey in a "nuclear umbrella" strategy against Iran. This is especially true as Turkey believes that, according to Davutoglu quoted by the Tehran Times: "Access to nuclear technology for peaceful purposes is the right of all nations, including Iran" .

If Turkey is unlikely to take part in a U.S attempt at a "nuclear umbrella", designed to mitigate the problem of a nuclear-armed Iran, would it participate in a U.S-led international attempt to squeeze Iran with additional sanctions should talks (if they ever occur) fail? According to the Fars News Agency, Mr. Davutoglu told his counterpart "All our attempts are aimed at campaigning against potential sanctions and removing the existing barriers so that Iran will not remain outside the regional and global economy". This is particularly important as Turkey currently holds a seat on the UN Security Council.

There is one avenue of potential cooperation amongst all parties according to the Turks. During his visit to Iran, Davutoglu offered to host G5 +1 (China, U.S, Russia, Britain, France + Germany) discussions with Iran on its nuclear program, praising Iran's recent package of proposals. However, Iran's new proposals have not been received with much enthusiasm either by the EU or the U.S. It is clear that Ankara and Washington are not on the same wavelength in the current, pre-talks phase of the elaborate diplomatic minuet. It remains to be seen whether they draw closer or drift further apart if engagement should fail.