Tunisia's Strange Relationship with Israel

An excerpt from my latest article for Foreign Policy on Tunisia's strange relationship with Israel:

But about 80 members of Tunisia's national assembly weren't willing to leave it at that. They drafted a letter calling on Karboul and Sfar to appear before the assembly to respond to allegations that their moves to clarify the rules on visits by Israeli citizens amount to a "normalization" of ties with Israel. Tunisia opened a "diplomatic interest section," a sort of de facto embassy, in Israel in 1996, but shut it down four years later as a gesture of support for the Palestinian intifada. Since then, the Tunisian government has maintained a public stance of hostility to Israel, which it refuses to recognize. It's worth remembering that Tunisia hosted the Palestinian Liberation Organization for a time in the 1980s. (According to one historian, however, the government in Tunis granted the PLO this privilege only reluctantly, under considerable pressure from the United States.) Away from the public eye, Tunisia and Israel had continued to talk until the Tunisian uprising.

Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesperson Yigal Palmor says that, prior to the fall of former dictator Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, Israel had "good working relations" with Tunisian diplomats stationed in Ramallah, who used to handle Israeli visa requests.

"Since regime change, [Tunisian] diplomatic representatives have severed all ties with Israeli authorities," he says, although he's unwilling to offer an explanation for the sudden shift in policy. 

 To read the full article, click here.

Tunisia and the 'Arab Spring' Reversal

The following is an excerpt from my recent analysis of Tunisia's current turmoil following another political assassination. Read the full article here at Jadaliyya.

Two years ago, hope was not only palpable in the streets of Tunis; it was infectious. Young Arabs had risen up and triumphed against a Western-supported dictator whose police state ran on fear. Similar uprisings across the region seemed to have confirmed that Tunisia had led the way towards a new, more democratic order. And Tunisia was about to lead the way again by holding a clean election, almost unprecedented in the Middle East and North Africa.

Now, hope is in rare supply across the region. Egypt’s elections yielded new leaders that blindly and illiberally ran the country along strict partisan lines until a military coup publicly reasserted old-regime institutions. Libya’s timid leaders and bold militias have hampered democracy, security and institution building. Syria’s revolution turned into a bloody war and a hellish game for external actors, while Lebanon desperately tries to quarantine itself from the neighboring chaos. Western observers use increasingly desperate euphemisms for Iraq’s escalating civil war. No one dares talk about Bahrain, or perhaps no one cares. Other Gulf countries quietly quarrel amongst themselves through political and economic maneuvering in neighboring proxy countries.

While numerous pundits bemoan “Arab Spring” fatigue, many still believed that tiny Tunisia alone might overcome its challenges to create a new inclusive, civic, stable, free, and prosperous political order. But what started in Tunisia may soon end in Tunisia as the gains of the “Arab Spring” are systematically rolled back with the help of old regime forces, ascendant ideological zealots, domestic lassitude, and powerful outside players that are uncomfortable with independent, populist politics in the region.

Read the rest here.

Syrian Opposition Skeptical of International Commitment

Syrian expats and a member of the opposition Syrian National Council stand outside the Palace Hotel in Gammarth, Tunis, Tunisia on February, 24, 2012.

As foreign ministers from around the world gathered in Tunis on Friday to discuss possible responses to the Syrian regime’s bloody crackdown on its people, members of the main Syrian opposition group present at the so-called “Friends of the Syrian people” conference were incensed at the what they see as a weak response.

“We didn’t come here to talk about humanitarian aid, we came here to talk about the violence. Aid will not stop the killing,” said press spokesman Mouayad Alkiblawi of the opposition group the Syrian National Council, or SNC. “They never talked about self-defense. Do you need 100,000 victims to intervene?”

SNC members were also upset with what they saw as the weak opening remarks of Tunisian President Moncef Marzouki, who suggested that the international community seek a deal with the Assad regime similar to the one that was reached with Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh.

Alkiblawi’s comments came after the Saudi delegation walked out of the conference, citing the “inactivity” of the talks.

A senior Turkish diplomat said it was understandable that the Saudis wanted stronger language in the working document that had been circulated throughout the conference but said that the meeting was important to create an international platform to pressure the Syrian regime.

“This is the voice of the international conscience,” the diplomat said, suggesting that the show of international backing for increasing pressure on President Bashar Al-Assad’s regime could create the dynamics needed to push through another United Nations Security Council resolution on the issue if the U.N. route is revisited at a later date.

Friday’s meetings came after a U.N. Security Council resolution calling on Assad to step aside was vetoed by Russia and China. Russia boycotted the Tunis meetings, while China did not send a delegation.

United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton gives closing remarks at the Friends of the Syrian people conference in Tunis, Tunisia on February 24, 2012.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton delivered harsh prepared words for the two abstaining nations on Friday, calling their position on Syria “despicable.”

“Whose side are they on? Clearly they are not on the side of the Syrian people,” she said in her closing remarks. “We call on those states that are supplying weapons to kill civilians to halt immediately.”

She said that the conference had achieved concrete steps to putting pressure on the Syrian regime, including “commitments” to impose travel bans on senior regime members, freezing regime assets, and more sanctions. She did not specify which nations made these commitments or when the commitments would be realized.

While the United States pledged $10 million in additional humanitarian aid, the issue of immediately putting a stop to the violence was not concluded.

“I regret deeply that there will be more killing before [Assad] goes,” Clinton said.

Tunisia as Host 

The organization of Friday’s conference was finalized “last minute,” according to conference participants. Security was lacking in the morning, with few police guarding the entrance to the Palace Hotel in Gammarth, the conference venue. A metal detector placed at the entrance to the hotel beeped without entrants submitting to additional screening.

Security issues came to the fore when a small but vocal group of Tunisian pro-Assad protesters stormed the hotel’s gates. The group of a couple hundred pushed forward, nearly to the entrance of the hotel, blocking off car access routes and delaying the arrival of Secretary Clinton, President Marzouki and other delegates. The protesters were finally dispersed after police beat them with batons and chased them back.

Syria, Iraq: Turkey’s foreign policy headaches

Noticed a couple things on my recent trips to Istanbul and Ankara. The media in Turkey these days is awash with stories on Syria, predictably. Somewhat less predictable is how Turkey will respond to the turmoil across its border.

Some Syrian anti-regime demonstrations have morphed into an armed resistance, with the Telegraph reporting this week that Libya’s new leaders intended to send hundreds of fighters and weapons to anti-regime forces in Syria. Some in Libya believe that the alleged proposal was a rogue one made by the Islamist, Libyan militia commander Abdul Hakim Bel Haj. While it is unclear how many Syrian anti-regime demonstrators have turned to armed resistance and exactly which outside parties are helping which side and to what extent, developments indicate that violence and repression are set to escalate in Syria.

The consequences of such an escalation would directly affect Turkey. Syrian refugees in Turkey who are staying in camps on the border number over 7000 currently. However, if the death toll keeps rising and certain key groups in Syria turn against the regime, the ensuing hostilities may force tens, possibly hundreds of thousands more streaming across the border. Leaders of the Free Syrian Army opposition group, made up mainly of former Syrian Armed Forces members who defected, are currently based near the Syrian border in southern Turkey. The Turkish government has failed to clarify what support, if any, they are providing to this group; however, it can be argued that Turkey, de facto, is harboring a group bent on violent regime change in a neighboring country. So much for Turkey’s “zero problems with neighbors” policy.

While the Turkish government has made it clear in recent weeks that they would like to see Assad step down, and that his regime has lost legitimacy, it is unclear how Turkish foreign policy makers will proceed. Turkish officials are quick to insist that the term “regime change” is not in their diplomatic vocabulary. However, it seems as if global consensus is pushing towards building pressure on the Assad regime. On Saturday, the Arab League agreed to impose sanctions on Syria, after Assad declined to respond to an Arab League proposal (Assad had been given a deadline to respond by 11 am GMT Friday) that would have set a course for a diplomatic solution. On Wednesday, Turkey followed suit and imposed its own sanctions. Both Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu and Prime Minister Recep Tayyıp Erdoğan have suggested that a militarily secure buffer zone might be set up on the Syrian border if things get out of hand. It is so far unclear which side of the border this buffer zone would need to be set up on in order to achieve its intended purpose, but many have speculated that such a move could provoke the Syrian regime and its Iranian backers. Any sort of intervention or peace-keeping mission, even a NATO-backed one, would place much of the burden on Turkey. With the country's large military and shared border, Turkey would be expected to take the lead in any NATO mission, something which would put Turkey in the uncomfortable position both domestically and across the Arab world of appearing to do the bidding of the West in a confrontation in the Middle East.


Along with sanctions, Davutoğlu also announced that Syrian trade routes would be detoured through Iraq. Turkey will host U.S. Vice President Joe Biden first in Ankara and then in Istanbul. The visit is important as Biden handles the White House’s Iraq portfolio, and American troops are set to withdraw from Iraq by the end of this year. While Washington has said that the troop withdrawal will not mean a complete U.S. disengagement from Iraq, Turkey is anxiously looking to the December withdrawal date. Any power vacuum in Iraq could lead to greater Iranian influence in the country, particularly in the south and amongst the Shia population. A power vacuum could also allow the PKK, the separatist Kurdish terrorist group based in northern Iraq, to have greater freedom of mobility and operations, a direct threat to Turkey.

“Cooler Heads Have Prevailed” in Turkish-Israel Relations

Deteriorating ties between Turkey and Israel have been the subject of much analysis and some criticism from Washington following the Gaza flotilla incident in which eight Turkish citizens and one Turkish American were killed after attempting to break Israel’s blockade on Gaza.

In the wake of the incident, two letters were sent to President Obama from Congress supporting Israel in its actions. The Senate letter called on the administration to consider placing the Turkish group that organized the flotilla the IHH, or the Humanitarian Relief Foundation, on the State Department’s list of foreign terrorist organizations. Last week State Department spokesman Mark Toner said at a press briefing that they were “looking at IHH, but it’s a long process to designate something – an organization a Foreign Terrorist Organization.”

According to one senior Turkish source in Washington, if the IHH were to be designated a terrorist organization, it could have negative effects on Turkish-U.S relations. There would be pressure on the Turkish government to label the organizations similarly, and there would be greater scrutiny of the group’s ties within Turkey.

The difference of opinion between the U.S administration and the Turkish government over the IHH stems from a difference in opinion over whether Hamas is in fact a terrorist organization or not, said one House staffer. Turkey does not consider Hamas a terrorist organization, and therefore does not see the alleged financial links between the IHH and Hamas as a reason to label the group as a terrorist organization. This potential fissure in Turkish-U.S relations came up as a result of the hostile encounter between Turkey and Israel. The staffer, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that the steps taken by Congress should be seen as a warning shot to Turkey that it should repair its relationship with Israel.

It seems that the Turkish government has indeed taken the message. Former Congressman Robert Wexler, who co-chaired the Congressional study group on Turkey in the House of Representatives and who is currently the president of the Center for Middle East Peace and Economic Cooperation, in a phone interview said that he believes that Turkish-Israeli relations have taken a turn for the better recently.

“In the last two weeks, cooler heads have prevailed on both sides, and I’m grateful for that,” said Wexler. “Now they can look towards what can be done constructively.”

Turkish-Israeli relations are important for the U.S foreign policy initiatives in the region, Wexler stressed, particularly in bringing together the divided Palestinian leadership of Fatah and Hamas in the pursuit of lasting peace in the region.

“Turkey has always played a unique role because of its ability to play the role of a bridge between East and West and between Israel and certain areas of the Arab world,” said Wexler. “If Turkey’s relationship with Israel is significantly compromised, Turkey’s role as a bridge will be diminished.

By agreeing to a meeting with Israel’s Industry, Trade and Labor minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezar in Brussels at the end of last month, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu showed signs that his government was willing to make steps towards repairing ties with Israel. However, only days after this inconclusive meeting, Davutoğlu went on to state that “Israel should both apologize and pay compensation unilaterally. If those two conditions do not materialize, the diplomatic relations with Israel will be cut off.”

So far there has been virtually no daylight between the Israeli and American position on the matter, and the likelihood of any pressure from Washington on Israel to make the concessions that Turkey has demanded appears to be even less after the apparently successful meeting between President Obama and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington last week.

(Published in the Hürriyet Daily News)

Democratic Reform Process, EU Accession “Closely Linked”

New Article:

Thursday, November 26, 2009

ISTANBUL – Hürriyet Daily News

The European Union praised Turkey’s efforts to grant its citizens of Kurdish origin more rights and to end the decades-old terror problem, linking it with the candidate country’s aspirations to join the union.

"The reform process in Turkey and the accession process are closely linked to each other," EU term president Sweden’s Foreign Minister Carl Bildt said during annual Turkey-EU Troika meeting in Istanbul. Bildt also praised the Turkish government’s pro-active foreign policy, especially in its region. “We appreciate the active Turkish role in foreign policy,” said Bildt.

The highest forum for political dialogue between the EU and Turkey convened Thursday with the participation of Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, Chief Negotiator Egemen Bağış, the EU’s next term president, Spanish minister Diego Lopez Garrido, and EU representative in Ankara, Marc Pierini. EU Commissioner Olli Rehn could not make it to the meetings today.

Bildt has renewed the EU’s call for Turkey to open its ports and airspace to Greek Cyprus, but Davutoğlu said the issue would be addressed after a solution to the division of the island is reached.

Challenged by reporters over Turkey’s growing ties with Iran, Davutoğlu said that “all countries should be in a position to carry out” peaceful nuclear programs and that he wished to see “Iran better integrated with the world,” something he believes Turkey’s recent efforts will achieve.

Bildt supported Davutoglu’s statements, saying that “we do need to engage with Iran,” and that all countries have the “right to peaceful nuclear activities.”

Speaking on negative signals from the EU regarding Turkey’s EU accession process, Davutoglu said that the EU needs to “break down the Berlin wall that exists in the minds of people, not just politically, but socially and culturally”

“We will hopefully see the chapter on the environment open in December,” said Bağış. .

Diego Lopez Garrido, Secretary of State for the EU, expressed hopes for progress on Turkey’s EU accession while challenging Turkey to do more.

“Its clear that Spain is a country that believes in the accession process,” said Garrido, but “it depends on the political will. We have the political will…It depends mainly on the Turkish side.”

Asked how many negotiation chapters Garrido hopes will open under Spain’s EU presidency, he refused to give a definite answer, saying, “We can’t give a number now, because it’s not a question of mathematics.”

Israeli Trade Minister to Arrive in Turkey

Israel’s minister of Industry, Trade and Labor, Benjamin Ben-Eliezer, is set to arrive in Turkey today for the annual Turkish-Israeli Economic Conference. He will hold talks with both the Turkish Agricultural Minister, Mehdi Eker, and Defense Minister, Vecdi Gonul.

Diplomatic tensions between the two countries have risen in the last few months following a host of spats. Turkey voiced its objections over Israel’s Operation Cast Lead in Gaza last year, the most conspicuous of which was seen in January when Prime Minister Recep Tayip Erdogan’s walked out of a panel discussion at the World Economic Forum in Davos after a disagreement with Israeli President Shimon Peres. In October, a joint military operation in Turkey, codenamed Anatolian Eagle, was cancelled, reportedly because Turkish officials had asked Israel not to participate. In the same month, a Turkish television show called “Ayrilik” caused an uproar in Israel after it portrayed Israeli soldiers killing Palestinian children.

Ben-Eliezer’s visit will be the first official visit to Turkey by an Israeli Minister since the events in October. Eliezer was the only Israeli official to attend a dinner at the Turkish Embassy for the celebrations of Turkey’s Republic Day.

Commenting on the upcoming visit, the Chairman of the Turkish chapter of the Turkish-Israeli Business Council, Ekrem Guvendiren, expressed his hopes.

“I am optimistic,” said Guvendiren. “It will go very well indeed. There is no reason it shouldn’t.”

Despite the recent diplomatic speed bumps, Guvendiren insists that trade between the countries has not suffered. He said that between 2007 and 2008, both trade and investment between the two countries had increased and that numbers for this year suggest it will rise even higher.

“Trade between the two countries were not affected by the [diplomatic] strain,” said Guvendiren. However, he admits that tourism from Israel to Turkey has fallen 40% in the wake of deteriorating bilateral ties.

Israel’s Foreign Minister, Avigdor Lieberman, also commented on Ben-Eliezer’s trip, telling the Israeli newspaper, Haaretz, that Eliezer’s “trip to Turkey is... an important trip, but has not been agreed upon by the Foreign Ministry.” Commenting on speculation that one of the goals of the visit is to discuss Turkey resuming its role as a mediator for talks between Israel and Syria, Lieberman said that “after all of Turkey's insults and tongue-lashing against Israel, they can't be a mediator”

Islamic Leaders Pledge Economic Cooperation

A piece of mine as published in Hurriyet Daily News- photos were not included in original publication:

Monday, November 9, 2009
ISTANBUL –


Gathering in Istanbul on Monday, the Organization of the Islamic Conference, or OIC’s, heads of state discussed economic cooperation during the world’s worst economic crisis since the 1930s.

In his opening statements, President Abdullah Gül urged leaders to sign the trade preferential system, or TPS-OIC. “I call upon the distinguished heads of state to once again precipitate the finalization of the signing and ratification process,” he said.

Four countries have so far ratified the proposed TPS-OIC, although at least six more must sign for the measure to pass.

Gül reiterated his support for increasing OIC cooperation, saying, “Turkey’s foreign trade volume with OIC countries increased fivefold during the last eight years. I would like to renew our resolve to maintain this trend.”

Furthermore, Gül said the important commercial and economic relations Turkey has with both the West and the Islamic world are not contradictory.

“The European Union accession process and our participation in the Standing Committee for Economic and Commercial Cooperation of the OIC support each other,” he said.

Gül offered his congratulations to Afghanistan’s President Hamid Karzai on his recent election victory and pledged to continue economic support for the war-torn nation.

Karzai requested more support from fellow OIC nations, asking them to “open up markets to Afghan products.” He said the OIC’s 550-million-strong workforce was the organization’s strength.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, meanwhile, stressed the economic failures of capitalism and criticized Western financial systems based on “usury,” urging instead a new economic order based on Islamic models.

“The world, the planet, could witness the positive ramifications of a political system that is based on divine teachings,” he said.

Saturday’s OIC ministerial meetings proposed several other structural measures to facilitate economic cooperation. A report by the OIC’s research council proposed the establishment of an OIC commodities market to be based in Istanbul, Cairo or Dubai. The report also discussed the October agreements between OIC countries that called for the creation of a “Central Banks Association” that would hold annual meetings as well as a chairmanship based on a rotating “troika” system.

TOBB, IDB vow closer cooperation

I have a new piece in the Hurriyet Daily News, here is the article and some pictures that were not published to go with them:


Sunday, November 8, 2009
Fadil Aliriza
ISTANBUL - Hürriyet Daily News

The head of Turkey’s Union of Chamber and Commodity Exchanges, or TOBB, met with the head of the Islamic Development Bank, or IDB, on Saturday to announce future cooperation plans.

Rifat Hisarcıklıoğlu, head of TOBB, pledged to increase joint projects, of which two were completed last year, to a total of six.

“We believe that we will do important work, beneficial work for the Islamic communities,” Hisarcıklıoğlu said

This cooperation follows the memorandum of understanding signed between the two organizations in Jeddah on Feb. 5.

Ahmed Muhammad Ali, head of the IDB, said he was grateful for the continued cooperation between the two organizations, telling his counterpart, “You are helping the IDB to achieve its goal and its mission.”

The projects outlined by Hisarcıklıoğlu focus on investments in Africa and the Middle East, including a “capacity-building program for Iranian chambers [of commerce] and knowledge-sharing of Turkey’s economic development progress.”

The regional, private sector and economic integration policy signaled by TOBB on Saturday comes on the heels of important diplomatic agreements between Turkey and Iran, including a large bilateral deal on natural gas transit. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is expected to arrive Monday for the OIC conference.

The Turkish government has a 7.7 percent stake in the IDB, while the IDB’s current operations in Turkey stand at $1.6 billion.

The meeting took place on the sidelines of Saturday’s meeting of the Organization of the Islamic Conference’s, or OIC, Standing Committee for Economic and Commercial Cooperation, COMCEC. Ministerial meetings at the COMCEC conference looked at other broader issues affecting OIC countries, including the food crisis, the financial crisis and energy cooperation.

Turkey's Foreign Policy Shifts

Istanbul, October 21-

At a conference in Istanbul, Prime Minister Recep Tayip Erdogan spoke on Monday about the lead role he envisions Turkey taking in the Middle East.

“It is imperative to establish a new global order,” Erdogan said at the istanbul forum, a 2 day conference which brought policy makers and analysts from both the Middle East and the West to discuss regional issues.

“Turkey has a major role to play in the region,” said Erdogan. His soaring rhetoric, which vacillated between that of peacemaker and populist, appeared to place Turkey at the head of a new global power structure as “a shining star of this world.”

Responding to coverage of the diplomatic fraying between his country and Israel in recent months, Erdogan parried that “not everyone" in the region "has to feel trust for us.” This contrasts with his government's stated goal of acting as honest broker and once again hosting talks between Israel and Syria. Earlier talks broke down with the start of the 2008 Israel-Gaza War.

Relations between Turkey and Israel, which had always been strong, have begun to deteriorate. In the wake of the 2008 assault on Gaza, Turkey became an outspoken critic of Israel, particularly over the high number of civilian casualties which occurred during the conflict. In January, Erdogan walked out of a panel at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland after a dispute with Israeli President Shimon Peres over the Gaza War. Tensions have risen in recent days following the cancellation of a joint NATO military operation, where Turkey reportedly had chosen to exclude Israel, prompting the U.S and other NATO members to withdraw. Despite official statements from all sides that the cancellation was due to technical problems, both Prime Minister Erdogan and his Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu have suggested in subsequent press conferences that the cancellation was in response to disagreements over the 2008 Gaza assault.

Congressman Robert Wexler, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee’s Subcommittee on Europe and an outspoken supporter of Israel, responded directly to the Prime Minister’s foreign policy program in a panel discussion at the istanbul forum.

“Why is it that warmer relations with Syria, why is it the new relationship with Iran, why is it that a more prominent Turkey has to, it seems, come at the expense of Turkey’s relationship with Israel?” said Wexler.

Ibrahim Kalin, foreign policy advisor to Prime Minister Erdogan, countered Wexler in the panel and claimed that there was no black and white alignment into which Turkish foreign policy must fall. He went on to say that “you cannot have security of Israel at the expense of the security of Palestinians.”

Tension at the forum seemed to crescendo when Jamal Zahalka, an Arab member of the Knesset, viciously attacked President Obama’s approach to Middle East Peace, stating that “the main obstacle for any settlement in the Middle East is the American Policy,” citing Obama’s commitment to “unbreakable” relations between America and Israel, regardless of changes in Israeli policy.

The conference was sponsored by the German Marshall Fund, Stratim, and SETA (The Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research) whose contributors often include members of Turkey's governing AK party.

Today, the American and Israeli militaries began joint exercises of the annual Juniper Cobra. This year, it is reported that the exercises will simulate possible missile attacks on Israel, presumably as a response to fears of Iranian nuclear ambitions. Turkey currently enjoys warm relations with Iran.

New Greek Prime Minister Arrives in Turkey

The newly elected Greek Prime Minister, George Papandreou of the Greek Socialist party (PASOK), arrived in Turkey today on his first foreign visit. Mr. Papandreou also has the role of Foreign Minister and was greeted by Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu at the airport. He is scheduled to meet with his other counterpart, Prime Minister Recep Tayip Erdogan, later in the day.

"This is a very significant visit" said Davutoglu. "It shows the significance that [Mr. Papandreou] attributes to relations with Turkey."

Mr. Davutoglu said that Mr. Papandreou reiterated his support for Turkey's EU accession and that he is hopeful that there will be progress towards finding a solution to the Cyprus issue. He notes that the visit reinforces that this is a "period of peace" for Turkey. However, he hinted at possible conflict with his Greek counterpart when he noted that despite Turkey's commitment to finding a solution for the divided island, "we do not see the same commitment on the Greek side."

The Ministers attended a nearly three hour long meeting of the South East European Cooperation Process (SEECP), of which Turkey currently holds the chair. The SEECP seeks to improve regional integration, particularly on energy, infrastructure, trade liberalization and the promotion of investments.

Both the Turkish Foreign Minister and the next-in-line chair of the SEECP, Milan Rocen, stressed that regional cooperation was, in the words of Rocen, "the fastest way to European and Atlantic integration."

While Turkey is set to sign a set of protocol with Armenia tomorrow that will attempt to normalize relations between the two countries, Mr. Davutoglu gave no new comments on the matter. He said rather, that he will focusing on the Balkans next week after he returns from trips to Damascus and Baghdad.

U.S - Iranian policy and the Turkish factor

News Analysis

On Friday, the Obama administration notified Congress of a possible sale of missiles to Turkey, worth $7.8 billion. Two major reasons have been identified as motivating this deal. First, predictably, is to gain business from Turkey, which is also looking at potential missile purchases from Russian and Chinese arms manufacturers. However, the second reason is more interesting.


On July 26, speaking in Bangkok, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said:

We want Iran to calculate what I think is a fair assessment, that if the United States extends a defense umbrella over the region, if we do even more to support the military capacity of those in the Gulf, it’s unlikely that Iran will be any stronger or safer, because they won’t be able to intimidate and dominate as they apparently believe they can once they have a nuclear weapon.

In line with this notion of a "defense umbrella", other large American arms deals in the region have been announced, including a "$220 million artillery rocket sale to Jordan and a possible $187 million sale of F-16 fighter-carried weapons to Morocco".

Of course, it is not clear that this approach is set policy. In fact, very little of the U.S policy is clearly defined. Questioned on Meet the Press, by David Gregory on her use of the term "defense umbrella" and overall U.S policy towards Iran, Mrs. Clinton went back and forth:

SEC'Y CLINTON: ...First, we’re going to do everything we can to prevent you from ever getting a nuclear weapon. But your pursuit is futile, because we will never let Iran–nuclear-armed, not nuclear-armed, it is something that we view with great concern, and that’s why we’re doing everything we can to prevent that from ever happening.

MR. GREGORY: All right, but let’s be specific. Are you talking about a nuclear umbrella?

SEC’Y CLINTON: We, we are, we are not talking in specifics, David, because, you know, that would come later, if at all. You know, my view is you hope for the best, you plan for the worst. Our hope is–that’s why we’re engaged in the president’s policy of engagement toward Iran–is that Iran will understand why it is in their interest to go along with the consensus of the international community

In the same program the Secretary (simultaneously) suggested pursuing diplomatic engagement, preventing nuclear weaponization at all costs ("we're going to do everything we can"), and a nuclear umbrella strategy. All three approaches are complicated by the Iranian government's lack of legitimacy after the disputed election as well as increasing pressure on the U.S from Israel's right-leaning government to take strong action on Iran.

However, with regards to the idea of a nuclear umbrella and its possible connection to the recent announcements of arms deals in the region, there is an additional problem. The missile sales were announced last Friday. On Sunday, Turkey's foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoglu was in Iran. In addition to the impressive growth in bilateral trade, (estimated at $11 billion in 2008), relations between the two countries seems to be at a high point in other areas. According to the Tehran Times, Iranian Foreign Minister, Manouchehr Mouttaki called the relations between his country and Turkey "strategic and comprehensive". At their meeting, the two ministers committed themselves to cooperating against Kurdish terrorists in Northern Iraq, implying a degree of military cooperation. Such cooperation between Turkey and Iran would surely hinder any U.S attempt to use Turkey in a "nuclear umbrella" strategy against Iran. This is especially true as Turkey believes that, according to Davutoglu quoted by the Tehran Times: "Access to nuclear technology for peaceful purposes is the right of all nations, including Iran" .

If Turkey is unlikely to take part in a U.S attempt at a "nuclear umbrella", designed to mitigate the problem of a nuclear-armed Iran, would it participate in a U.S-led international attempt to squeeze Iran with additional sanctions should talks (if they ever occur) fail? According to the Fars News Agency, Mr. Davutoglu told his counterpart "All our attempts are aimed at campaigning against potential sanctions and removing the existing barriers so that Iran will not remain outside the regional and global economy". This is particularly important as Turkey currently holds a seat on the UN Security Council.

There is one avenue of potential cooperation amongst all parties according to the Turks. During his visit to Iran, Davutoglu offered to host G5 +1 (China, U.S, Russia, Britain, France + Germany) discussions with Iran on its nuclear program, praising Iran's recent package of proposals. However, Iran's new proposals have not been received with much enthusiasm either by the EU or the U.S. It is clear that Ankara and Washington are not on the same wavelength in the current, pre-talks phase of the elaborate diplomatic minuet. It remains to be seen whether they draw closer or drift further apart if engagement should fail.