Tunisian Election Predictions

Tunisian polling stations are just closing now, at 7pm local time, but voting will continue until all those in voting bureaus at the time of closing have voted. The Independent High Electoral Commission, or ISIE by its French Acronym, has announced that final results will likely not be available until Tuesday evening. As we wait for results to come in, I would like to venture a couple predictions, assuming voting and counting take place fairly.

1- Islamist-oriented Ennahdha is likely to win over 40%

Ennahdha is the best organized party in Tunisia, and by far the most popular. There are several reasons for this. As one Ennahdha member told me earlier this week, before Ennahdha was a political party, before it was even a movement, it was an organization - mainly of religiously oriented, underground political activists - which has its roots in the early 1980's. It has invaluable grassroots experience, which it has used to organize rallies (and according to unverified rumors - weddings, religious ceremonies, and community giveaways) and motivate their broad-based constituency. While the latest polls, which came out prior to the campaign season, put Ennahdha support at about 20-30%, undecided voters, which made up over 50%, are likely to swing in favor of Ennahdha.

Dozens of taxi drivers have told me, "the others are all thieves" in their eyes - Of course this must be taken with a grain of salt, but perception is important and the anecdote seems to hold water. Prior to the campaign season, the two parties at the top of the polls, Ennadha and the Progressive Democratic Party (PDP), were also the two with the biggest name recognition. While both Ennahdha leaders and PDP leaders spent time in jail under Ben Ali's regime, more Ennahdha leaders spent considerably more time in prison than PDP leaders. On top of that, PDP was a legal party under Ben Ali, trying desperately to be the voice of opposition in a political entity that tightly controlled opposition. These differences have worked to convince many Tunisians that Ennahdha was truly the voice of opposition against the old regime.

2- PDM is likely to come in second

PDM, or Al-Qotb, or the Pole Democratique Moderniste, is a coalition grouping of 4 leftist parties and 5 citizen initiatives. The best known of the parties, Ettajdid, is an old party that branched out from the communists and was legal under the former regime. The grouping has worked hard to be the voice of the Tunisian left without distancing itself from Islam. They have managed to organize impressive rallies that draw enthusiastic crowds, made up primarily of young Tunisians. They have also included numerous young candidates in their candidature lists. By grouping together, the movement has managed to tailor its message, with one party targeting artists, another evolved communists, and yet another internet activists who want an internet free from corporate interests and censorship. Meanwhile, Tunisia's best known communist party, POCT, has lost considerable support from leftists after hints from its leader, Hamma Hammami, that it will work together in coalition with Ennahdha. As for more centrist parties, like PDP and CPR, it seems as if Tunisians are likely to stay away from the "safe choice/center" parties the first time they cast their ballots.

Tunisia's Identity politics

Here is a brief excerpt from my piece in Al-Masry Al-Youm this week:

Rachid Ghannouchi, the leader of the Islamic-oriented Ennahda (Renaissance) Party, drew attention this week when he suggested in several interviews that his party would win a majority in the upcoming parliament. However, at a press conference in Tunis on Wednesday, Ghannouchi warned that "there is a risk of the election results being manipulated.”

“If there is manipulation, we will rejoin the forces and the guardians of the revolution which ousted Ben Ali and the first [interim] government. We are ready to oust up to ten governments if needed,” he was quoted as saying.

The comment has drawn concern from other Tunisian political parties, including the the Progressive Democratic Party (PDP).

“We are not going to work with them, especially after this last declaration,” says Ahmed Bouazzi, a member of the PDP’s executive committee. However, PDP insists that it will respect the results of the election, regardless of the results. “We believe these elections will be fair. We will accept them because we are democrats. If Ennahda wins the majority, we will accept the result.”

Ennahda insists on shucking the “Islamist” label, instead saying that it is a party with an Arab-Islamic “reference.”

“For us, the respect of Islam, of our history, our civilization, that’s the base of our party,” says Nourreddine Arbaoui, a member of Ennahda's political bureau.

The entire piece is available at http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/507192

Tunisia's bumpy path to democracy

Here is a brief excerpt of my latest piece in Foreign Policy:

TUNIS, Tunisia — On the eighth floor of a whitewashed building in downtown Tunis, Kamel Jendoubi sits bleary-eyed at a desk drowning in papers, his day full of meetings and far from over despite the darkening sky outside his window.

Jendoubi is president of Tunisia's Independent High Election Committee (ISIE by its French initials), tasked with supervising the country's first elections since the fall of President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali. Scheduled for Oct. 23, they will also be the first popular elections in any country whose ruler was ousted by the Arab Spring. Unlike Libya, Tunisia has experienced relatively little violence, and unlike Egypt, the old regime has relatively little power to perpetuate itself.

But Jendoubi's task isn't easy. He's beset with a growing roster of concerns, ranging from reports of election corruption to limited resources and experience. "For me, we don't have enough election officials. … We are hearing rumors of parties and candidates giving money to voters," he says.

The full article is available here.

‘Arab Bloggers’ convene following some regional success

Bloggers, social media activists, and digital journalists convened in Tunis this week to discuss their role, responsibility, and challenges following the surprise, although incomplete, success of what many have termed the ‘Arab Spring.’

The ‘Third Arab Bloggers Meeting,’ the first to be held in almost two years, brought together voices from across the region, each telling their stories about how they have witnessed, recounted and participated in assertions of civic identities in what had previously been a region devoid of a strong civil society.

A Syrian woman, Razan Ghazzawi, who in recent months has begun to write on the political situation, braved speaking about her country’s domestic turmoil.

“Some people were against the protests. So many denied the protests,” She said.

It was difficult for many in Syria to believe that there were people demonstrating against the government, as, she says, protests taking place were often “flash protests,” dissolving after 2, 3 or 10 minutes. However, the fact that images of the protests were posted on the internet and social media websites refuted official narratives that there was no civic strife.

“The image brought down the lie,” said Ghazzawi.

Meanwhile Libyan blogger and essayist Ghazi Gheblawi, working from London to publicize the Libyan revolution, said that social media networks played an important role in pushing the cause of the revolution.

“The internet played a major role when Benghazi was totally isolated,” said Gheblawi. “Many people were smuggling videos [from Libya] – first to Tunisia, then uploaded to Youtube and Twitter. Youtube and Twitter magnified the events.”

A Blogger Nobel Peace Prize nominee?

Tunisian blogger Lina Ben Mhenni, who, according to rumors was in the running for the Nobel Peace Prize, was also in attendance at the blogger meetings. She expressed to this journalist how happy she was to have been nominated, but is disturbed and confused by increasing attacks on her by the Tunisian media.

She warns that Tunisian bloggers still face challenges following an uprising that resulted in the ouster of longtime dictator Zine al Abidine Ben Ali earlier this year.

“Yes we are free, but you know, some two weeks ago a blogger was beaten by the police. Sometimes they just arrest bloggers because they are taking photos,” said Ben Mhenni. “[There is] no more censorship, but aggression is continuing.”

An Unexpected Visitor

Despite the concerns of some Tunisians that the January ‘revolution’ did not secure freedom of speech for all Tunisians, dramatic changes have taken place. The Tunisian government body charged with overseeing and censoring internet in Tunisia, made an appearance at Monday’s opening session, not to shut down the meeting, but to lend support to the conference. Moez Chackchouk, CEO of the Tunisian Internet Agency, or ATI, said that his agency, following the ‘revolution,’ was no longer the enemy of internet activists or free speech.

“We were the enemy of internet activists, but, after the revolution, we were able to open our doors to you,” Chakchouk told the stunned audience at Cite Des Sciences conference hall in Tunis.

While Chakchouk says that “the Ben Ali regime subsidized the development of a sophisticated censorship system” for the internet, he insists that now, “there is no taboo subject anymore for the new ATI.”

Several bloggers stood up after Chakchouk’s presentation, expressing their happy surprise at the fact that a government official was joining them at the conference.

“Eight or nine months ago, I would not have believed a government official would be talking like this,” said one blogger who addressed the audience.

"Managing" the Arab Spring's economic woes

At the heart of the so-called ‘Arab Spring,’ post-revolution Tunisia is still beset by the problem of a young, unemployed, and educated population. This is particularly pronounced in the less developed interior of the country in towns like Sidi Bouzid, where a young vegetable seller by the name of Muhammad Bou Azzizi first ignited the Arab spring by an act of self immolation.

“The biggest challenge now is to manage expectations, the expectation of the young population, those among them who are unemployed,” said interim Tunisian Finance Minister Jalloul Ayed, before heading to Washington for the annual IMF/World Bank meetings.

Many Tunisians see unemployment as the biggest challenge to the revolution. Countrywide, unemployment rose from 14 percent in 2010, to 19 percent by the end of July, when new graduates and Tunisians fleeing the violence in neighboring Libya flooded the job market. In the interior of the country, unemployment runs upwards of 18 percent, with the number rising to between 31 and 48 percent among graduates, according to government figures.

“Prosperity consolidates democracy,” says Ayed. “Tangible prosperity: better living conditions, jobs for the unemployed, better prospects for the country, so that particularly the young population starts to see the light at the end of the tunnel and that they feel comfortable and confident about their future.”

However, those who remain unemployed have not been waiting patiently for October 23, when elections will be held for a constituent assembly that will write Tunisia’s new constitution. Last week, five unemployed teachers attempted a coordinated suicide in the southern town of Kasserine, hanging themselves from nooses tied to a goal post before onlookers quickly took them down and transported them to a hospital. The National Council for Liberty in Tunisia, a non-governmental organization that works closely with activists in Kasserine, say that the five made their suicide attempt after going on a hunger strike for 5 days, calling on the interim education minister and the prime minister to change the law that prevents people over the age of 40 from entering the public sector. Their calls were ignored.

Meanwhile, this month saw the repeated imposition and lifting of curfews in the southern towns of Sbeitla, and Sidi Bouzid as well as Kasserine after demonstrations and sometimes violent clashes between demonstrators and security forces. Here again, unemployment was the main catalyst of unrest.

Before leaving for Washington, Ayed announced the five year “Jasmine Economic and Social Plan,” which outlines a medium and long term solution to Tunisia’s economic woes by creating one million jobs while seeking to address the “short term economic and social emergency issues” to satisfy the growing impatience among Tunisia’s population. Financing for the plan is dependent to a great extent on the $38 billion international donor aid promised by the G8 under the May 27 Deauville partnership to help Arab countries in their transition to free and democratic societies. None of that money has yet been received.

The international aid, which was initially promised to Egypt and Tunisia, must now be expanded to cover Jordan, Morocco and possibly Libya following a decision at a G8 summit in Marseille earlier this month. Ayed says that he is confident that they “really mean to provide that support,” even though the G8 countries “haven’t touched the bilateral” figures, which he says are determined by their political relationship with Tunisia. He says he wouldn’t be surprised if specifics of the plan are discussed at the Washington meetings.

However, many young Tunisians remain wary of the country’s future economic prospects. At a rally early this month in front of interim Prime Minister Beji Caid Essebsi’s office in downtown Tunis, several young university students left their classrooms to join policemen protesting the decision to ban police unions from holding strikes. A university student named Iskander said he was worried that the elections would not change anything. Iskander pointed to his pocket where the top of a green Tunisian passport was visible.

“I already have my visa for Italy ready,” he said.

Tunisian Women in politics

This photo shows women from Tunisian party AFAQ registering their candidacy at the high election committee's office in the town of Monastir

Tunisia is preparing for its first elections since a revolution ousted longtime dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. With only a few weeks to go before polls open, dozens of newly formed parties are taking their first steps towards democracy. As campaign season gears up, Tunisian women are making their presence felt. Recently I followed four Tunisian women who submitted their candidacies in the seaside city of Monastir. This is their story:

Neyla Charchour is no stranger to Tunisian politics. In 2002, she set up the Liberal Mediterranean Party, promoting her views using a blog and the party’s website. When her party attracted the attention of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, she was interrogated by the police, her internet was cut off, and her husband was jailed for ten months on trumped up charges, she says.

Today, in a post-revolutionary Tunisia, Charchour is back in politics. She says that while Civil Society organizations play an important role, she felt it was necessary to reenter politics in order to make her voice heard

“Bringing your ideas into laws, make them come true, not only keep them as an idea. When you want parity between men and women, it needs laws, and if you wants laws to be adopted, you need to go through a party,” Charchour says.

On a Wednesday morning in early September, the last day for those running in the election to submit their candidacies, Charchour sets out from the capital Tunis with fellow members of her economically liberal Afaq, or Horizon party, to their hometown of Monastir. One of those fellow party members is Meriem Bourguiba.

Bourguiba is the granddaughter of Habib Bourguiba, who became Tunisia’s first President after being one of the leaders to win Tunisia’s independence from the French. He cultivated ties with the West, upheld secular principles, and put in place Tunisia’s Code of Personal Status, a law which came into effect in 1957 and which aimed to institute equality between men and women. In the words chosen by himself for his mausoleum, Bourguiba liberated the women of Tunisia.

Bourguiba says that her grandfather’s vision for Tunisia, one defined by pragmatic approaches to solving Tunisia’s problems, is just what the country needs as the country finds its footing following the revolution.

“Pragmatism: This is the ideology that works for Tunisia, pragmatism. What you need is the hot issues have to be dealt with, beyond any ideology,” she says. “And we see it today, the people cannot wait. They want a job and they want to eat, and without those two, even democracy cannot prevail,” says Bourguiba.

However, with over 105 political parties registered following the ouster of Ben Ali, there are a multitude of diverse ideologies competing for a voice, with everything from communists to capitalists and everything in between.

One party making its presence felt on the Tunisian political scene is the Islamist party Ennahda. An August poll conducted by the state news agency TAP shows Ennahda way ahead, with 23% support, followed by the Progressive Democratic party, with 9% support. The winners of the October 23rd elections will participate in a constituent assembly with a mandate to write a new constitution for Tunisia, a system designed by the interim government in a decision referred to as Kasbah 2.

These numbers trouble Henda Fennira Ben Fadhel, another Afaq woman registering her candidacy for the first time. She fears that if they win, Islamists will work towards reversing the Code of Personal Status.

“I have three girls, and after Kasbah 2, I had the feeling that the organization of the Islamists and the decision to go for a constitution in which these guys will have a hand in and a say in, made me feel like my girls are in danger,” Ben Fadhel says.

Many in Tunisia worry that the elections are not going to be the free and open elections that they hope for. Some accuse ex-regime figures of trying to foment instability; others say foreign money is being funneled in to influence the elections. However, the women say they must stay optimistic.

“If it doesn’t happen on the 24th of October, what we can say is ‘we tried.’ We’ll have tried. We didn’t stay on the fence. And in ten, fifteen years time, our children, her daughters will ask us the question and we’ll say ‘we tried,’ says Bourguiba.

In a sunlit conference room in Monastir with high walls, two secretaries accept documents from Charchour as the candidates make last minute calls to find out the exact names of relatives to fill out elections forms. After handing in the forms and getting their candidacy documents stamped, there is a round of handshakes among the women, with congratulations going first from the older ladies in the group to the youngest, Amira Laajimi, 25, for her first foray into politics. The event is quickly followed by a family photo full of grins. As the process winds down, Charchour looks across the table to Ben Fadhel and says in English “We did it.”

EU Progress Report Reflects on Country Rather Than Government, says Minister

Turkish Minister for EU affairs and chief negotiator Egemen Bağış, at a press conference held for Istanbul's foreign press Tuesday night, reiterated his positive reading of the EU's annual progress report on Turkey and deflected both the criticisms found within the report and those registered by the audience of journalists who attended the press meeting.

"When I read the report, and analyze it, and compare it with the previous 12 reports, the way I interpret it, we don't have to wait for another 13 years or 13 reports for full membership. Membership is now a much more achievable goal for Turkey than it ever was," said Bagış.

The report, which covers the period from early October 2009-October 2010, notes that "progress is measured on the basis of decisions taken, legislation adopted, and measures implemented."

"Of course this is Turkey's progress report. It's not the government's progress report, it's not the media's progress report, it's not the opposition's progress report, it's not the NGO's progress report, but this is an overall progress report for everyone in Turkey, so everyone should assume their responsibility vis a vis the report," said Bağış. "We all have to do our share to make sure Turkey's picture is depicted in a positive and balanced way."

Apart from an in depth assessment of Turkey's progress on each of the 33 chapters of EU accession, the report looks at Turkey's implementation of the Copenhagen criteria with regards to democracy, rule of law, human rights, and the protection of minorities.

This year's report identifies the dominant changes in Turkey's domestic political agenda this past year as having been the constitutional reform package, the government's democratic opening to address the Kurdish issue, and the "widening investigations into alleged coup plans." The report characterizes how Turkey addressed these issues as one in which "a confrontational political climate prevailed, marked by the lack of dialogue and spirit of compromise between the main political parties and the government and strained relations between key political institutions."

Bagış responded to this, agreeing that there has not been enough cooperation between parties and blaming opposition parties for not engaging the governing AKP in tackling the challenges that Turkey faces.

The report also offered some strong criticism on the state of freedom of the press in Turkey, citing the "high number of cases initiated against journalists who have reported on the Ergenekon case" and the prosecutions they face. This, the report warns, "could result in self-censorship." The report went on to criticize undue "pressure on newspapers" and "political attacks against the press." Citing the court case on the tax fine ordered in 2009 against the Doğan Media Group, the report notes that the "press exercises self-restraint when reporting following the initiation of this case."

"Lots of the criticism regarding the media is about judicial procedures...On one side, you want the judicial branch to be independent of the executive branch, and on the other side, blaming the executive branch for not interfering with the processes of the judicial branch is a contradiction," said Bağış. "I want to underline here that we respect the media's role to be a mirror showing us the insufficiencies or problems. We even welcome their criticism. But we do not welcome being insulted or being cursed at."

Several journalists at Tuesday's event questioned Bağış on the state of freedom of the press in Turkey. One journalist asked Bagış what the government was planning to do about Kurdish journalists in jail and other journalists who are in jail due to alleged connections with the Ergenekon investigations.

"Things may not be as good as they should be, but things today are much better than they used to be, and things will be better in the near future than they are today," said Bağış, noting that Turkey has changed since "the bad old days." Regarding “politicians and journalists who have been imprisoned for their ideals and articles, not because of direct allegations with attempts to have coups or topple democratically elected governments through undemocratic means, but just by the mere fact that they have written an article or they have recited a poem, things are better today,” said Bağış.

Of the court cases currently facing journalists, Bagış said that “only 11 of them have to do with political issues. The rest are either terrorism related, or attempts to topple a democratically elected government.”

Bagış went on to highlight the some of the positive developments that have taken place in the last decade. He believes that the rights of ethnic and religious minorities have improved, noting that ten years ago, Kurds used to fear admitting that they were Kurds. He also noted that Turkey has allowed some services at historical Greek and Armenian churches that would have been met with hostility in the past. While there was criticism in the report regarding these issues, he pointed out that at least some progress was made this year on each of the 33 EU accession chapters and he remains positive that Turkey will eventually become a member of the European Union.

“Europe needs Turkey more than Turkey needs Europe,” said Bagış. “The cost of keeping Turkey out is higher than having Turkey in.”